note: the following is an analysis from my viewpoint. thus I will be assuming that I am town. this is not an attempt to convince anyone else, just an attempt to reason out my own view.

ok. so I know either Aaargh or Mown is a spy. let's go from there. further, let's assume spies don't play WIFOM games with their votes. a spy will vote yes if the team has exactly one spy, and no otherwise. this is not an exact model, but considering the stakes of the second mission firing successfully it seems plausible to not take the risk.

in that case:

If Aaargh is scum
0 or 2 of the following: Zherog, Alt, Tiny, Squinty
1 of the following: squinty, bentz, mouse
0 or 2 of the following: Zherog, Tiny, Mouse, bentz (note that Aaargh failed to vote here, but I'm counting the no anyway.)
1 of the following: mouse, bentz, tiny, altimis

ok, now let's try to assign scum. (first name is presumed scum.)

• Zherog: impossible
• Squinty: alt must be scum
• Mown: impossible
• Mouse: impossible
• bentz: impossible
• alt: squinty must be scum
• Tiny: impossible

so unless I'm logicking wrong (I just woke up so it's entirely possible, I originally had squinty down as impossible.) if Aaargh is scum and voted in his best interest every time, his only plausible partners are squinty and alt.

If Mown is scum

1 of the following: Zherog, Alt, Tiny, Squinty
0 or 2 of the following: squinty, bentz, mouse
0 or 2 of the following: Zherog, Tiny, Mouse, bentz
1 of the following: mouse, bentz, tiny, altimis

and...

• Zherog: impossible
• Squinty: impossible
• Mouse: impossible
• bentz: impossible
• alt: Aaargh must be scum
• Tiny: impossible
• Aaargh: alt must be scum

so that leaves the scum team as Mown, Alt, Aaargh. there's the added wrinkle though that Mown nominated team 3, which means by the same reasoning it must contain at least 1 scum, making his patterns internally inconsistent, but that's true on either team so I'm focusing on the vote which I think is more telling. so, from my perspective, assuming spies are too scared to play WIFOM games at these stakes, Aaargh and Alt must be scum, either way. and Aaargh's votes only make sense if Squinty is scum. now I'm gonna have to go through and see if Alt and Squinty's votes are consistent with that scum team. and... of course they're not.

so what now? I don't know. that analysis gives me reason to suspect the scum team Aaargh/Alt/Squinty, but I've been pretty happy with Squinty so far so I'm not sure. it's a nice confirmation of my suspicions of Aaargh and Alt though. also note, again, this all assumes I'm town, none of you should accept this as proof of anything unless you also accept that premise.

one other approach: let's see if I can sift out some signal from the noise and identify a block of three that voted the same on every proposal. (I'm looking only on mission 2, mission 1 was lower stakes so I'm more willing to bet they threw stuff away.)

and... no. bentz, altimis, and tiny voted the same on the first three, and bentz's break from pattern can be explained by wanting to choose his own team, but none of them were on mission 1. so no matter what there is no spy team with a consistent voting record throughout mission 2. that means some spy voted against their interest on some mission. I think it's more likely that that happened on a mission with two spies rather than one with none. so if we discard mission 1's votes, do alt, squinty, and aaargh line up? no, alt rejected proposal 2. that could maybe be explained by the fact that he and I were fighting pretty hard at the time and so it would've blown his cover to approve a mission with me on it. I think. were we fighting by then? anyway, he was definitely on the "no one from mission 1" bus at that point so that also would've made him look suspicious if he'd approved team 2. removing those pieces of noise (squinty being more confident about a 2-spy team and alt not wanting to be a hypocrite) they all voted the same on proposals 3 and 4, but both of those went down 7-2 so I'm not sure how much that means. I'm not super confident here, but with this analysis that's my standing best guess for scum team. if someone wants to do an analysis including the possibility of me as scum go ahead, I'd like to see what happens, but that's a whole nother layer of complications and my tired brain can't handle it right now.

I agree, but I'm going to play it out anyway and see what I can figure out so I can decide if I want to play again next time it comes up. Also, I didn't see your post as anywhere close to "dictatorship" levels, so... *shrug*



I lean toward rejecting this because I don't trust - to varying degrees - you, tiny, or mouse.



Well, I've already explained my reasoning on it. I like to compartmentalize data. If you replace (as an example) Tiny with Razor on this second group, it sure makes Razor look guilty as hell, right? He'd be the only person in both failed groups. But that doesn't really tell us he's the spy; he could have crappy luck and be stuck on two missions with other spies. For me, I'm going to have an easier time putting things together* with distinct groups to look at.

* "put things together" unfortunately does mean after the fact, when I review and see if my instincts then match up with facts which match up with any patterns.



Oh, please. Tell me which mission I voted for that I know has a spy on it. Because, news flash: I DON'T KNOW WHO ANY SPIES ARE.



And as much as I disagree with you above, here you are again coming to the same conclusion I've reached - or close to it, anyway. I have Squinty and Aaaaarrrrrrgh, based almost purely on hunches. So the question I have to ask: are you a spy and playing me, or are you resistance and we're just butting heads because that's how the game goes?




Well, as much as I appreciate somebody coming to their senses and seeing I'm a White Hat, I'll be fair and say I had experience with mafia, having played Werewolf in person each of the last 5 or 6 years at GenCon in a large group (as many as 45). In addition, I find the fact-finding in mafia to be easier. Along with actual deaths that result in facts, I find the posting habits to generally be easier to analyze. (Though Soup totally snowed me last game until it was too late.)

So, yes I'm confused. Badly. Yes, that means I'm not driving conversation as much as you've seen in mafia games. But with mafia, even when I don't know who has on a Black Hat, I still have some idea where to go with my thinking - at least, once somebody's dead after D1.



Too simple indeed. Yet another person confirming my suspicion of Aaaaargh - Squinty. Hmmm...


edit by way of preview: I see Razor has made a post with some voting analysis since I started. Time to go read that...

I'm at work...boring.
First of all, I read the last resistance game thread. man, RM was so active when he played a spy.

Zherog, on the last mission proposal - if you assume there was exactly one spy on mission 1. you should have made this analysis - there are 6 'white hats': you, 2 from mission 1, can there really be 4 'white hats' on proposal 2.4 and there are 7 'white hats'. while on mission 2 it is more likely that in a 2 spies would vote 'Fail', in the first mission it is enormous risk. with 2 'fail' - game is practically over, and the reward is not big - there is still a good chance that the resistance will win.

Also, take into account that the difference between proposal 2.3 and 2.4 is one guy: Zherog out, Alt in - and suddenly from 7 'no', we went to 7 'yes' - what does this tell you?

eh, screw it, I'll look at my possibilities too. just for completeness, and so I can use this as an actual argument.

adding me in changes none of Aaargh or Mown's results as far as I can see. that's nice.

If Razor is scum
0 or 2 of the following: Zherog, Alt, Tiny, Squinty
1 of the following: squinty, bentz, mouse, razor
0 or 2 of the following: Zherog, Tiny, Mouse, bentz
0 or 2 of the following: mouse, bentz, tiny, altimis

• Zherog: impossible
• Squinty: impossible
• Mown: Aaargh must be scum
• Mouse: impossible
• bentz: impossible
• alt: impossible
• Tiny: impossible
• Aaargh: Mown must be scum

some important caveats.

1. I've previously stated that I don't think two spies on a team is a big deal, and that it's easy for them to line up their results. however, it's clear that no one else seems to think this, so I think it's unlikely that I'd take the risk.
2. I totally could've voted against my interests.

however, assuming I didn't, the only possible scum team with me on it is the entire first mission, which makes one wonder why the hell someone sabotaged that mission. and if that's the case, it's not reflected in Mown's or Aaargh's voting records on mission 2. I highly advise people to double check my work, and even if it's correct to take it with a hefty dose of salt. but Aaargh/Alt/Squinty seems like the objectively most likely team to me right now.

you can't just throw away the context though. on 2.4 they weren't voting yes/no, they were voting for Mouse's or yours. and they liked Mouse's better. also, going from 7 no to 7 yes is a 5-person swing, more than could possibly be accomplished by the spy team alone.

I believe that you are Resistance. You were on the first failed mission but that was only a 1/3 chance of you being a spy. You have actively and logically been looking for spies which has convinced me that you are Resistance. That being said I agree with your reasoning. I think Aaargh and Alt are most likely spies. I wasn't sure about Alt before, which is why I put him on my team. But as that failed I am now reasonable sure he is a spy. Squinty seems like he was actively looking for spies but if I follow your reasoning it seems he is most likely the third spy.



In a game with nine players I don't think it's a big deal to have two spies on a team. If they both get on a mission there are three outcomes:

1) Both pass - then the mission succeds and they look like Resistance which mean they have a better chance of getting on more missions

2) Both fail - then the mission fails and they can pass blame back and forth

3) One passes and one fails - then the mission fails and they can pass blame back and forth

All three outcomes seem to be more beneficial for spies than harmful. So I don't see why they would want to avoid having two spies on a mission.

Spies can vote against the spy interest in order to look more like a Resistance member. While playing a spy in a previous game I totally voted against spy interests when I thought it would benefit the spies later in the game.



I'm not sure why you're implying?

Roaring mouse - not implying nothing, just what I already posted before, the fact that you were quiet, specially in the beginning gave me a 'resistance' tell on you. I was also quiet in the beginning, I just couldn't bla bla when I had no information.

I was really afraid that when I started with this theory, I will be just like 'alt' being ignored in the last resistance game - his theory was also so logical, but no one wanted to follow him. I actually followed his logic because his postings were so hilarious, he just came like a storm to the game with the right theory and funny posts, that was awesome.

Mown, Roaring Mouse - How did it feel when alt joined the game and immediately came with the right conclusion that you are spies.
Did your heart pump, and what were your thoughts?

1 isn't actually more beneficial. it just means town will run the same team again and they'll be in the same position, but with town having a free win. 2 isn't either, given context. it confirms the two people who weren't on either team as town. 3 is the only beneficial outcome. it's not implausible, but assuming they can't communicate there's still a pretty good chance of it not happening, so if you can stall until you get exactly one spy, and you can do it while distancing yourself from your scum partners, why wouldn't you?

absolutely true, and an important caveat in all my analyses. but the stakes are very high with mission 2, so it's very dangerous to do so unless you know things will go your way anyway. thus I think it's reasonable to assume that, at the very least, a spy will not vote yes on an all-town mission.

About the 2 spies on a mission, I actually think it is a big deal on the first mission - with 2 fails on the first mission,
people would just ignore the entire group of 3. now with one spy from a group of 6, the resistance will likely win.

PREVIEW: I've been working on this long enough for me to be logged out for inactivity. Without wanting to make this LONGER, I will post it now and respond to things that have come up.



I like how you specifically pointed out me despite the other number of theories AND the fact that I proposed two.
This solidifies for me that YOU are in fact a spy, and now I just need to reconfigure myself to see what your two spy buddies could be.

As for why Zherog voted yes?
Please, if all spies were voting yes to every mission with one spy on them, they wouldn't get anywhere. As such, they need to distance themselves from their spymates. To do this, soemtimes they make votes to throw off the numbers and toss suspicion aside. Again, you are deflecting.

The other things, and I think I pointed it out last night / this morning, Zherog and razorborne and bentz were the first people to respond after the failed mission, and they were throwing out ideas, being oddly jovial about almost losing the game. That puts those three at the top of my suspicious list. Then I looked for votes and whatnot and found that bentz was simply voting no to ensure his team, while, I suspect, Zherog and razor were voting yes to simply throw off the numbers.

==xx==

@seTiny: So you don't think the spy tema including me is THE spy team because it's too clean, too acceptable. BUt you don't accept that the spy team is what I proposed because it's too unclean, too unacceptable? Hypocrisy at its finest. Not that I'm saying you're a spy, just that you don't know what you're looking for.

The spies don't WANT to be found. So doing anything, as you brought up:

Yes, it would've gone through, it would've failed, and then all three of the spies would look incredibly more suspicious.
As for my use of "you", I meant it in general, not specified at anyone in particular.
As for commiting to bring a second spy, spies lie. I'm sure bentz was just looking for his own team to come to pass. Then he has all sorts of mind games with us. If he blatantly lied did he bring spies on his team, or did he not? Sure we'd know one spy almost 100%, but the other two are still at large and depending on what his team proposal would be we wold be left compeltely in the dark.
Or he could've really brought razor with him and they could've found a way to coordinate their pass/fail cards so as to not raise suspicion. It's not impossible, and if they get lucky not even remotely difficult.

I'm still convinced there were two spies on mission one and one spy on mission two.

==xx==

In regards to razor and bentz, both of them are trying to post me out as being a spy (well you too seTiny), but they are both people on my suspect list. If you guys don't trust me, they look that much better. Keep that in mind.

==xx==

Here's my strictly pass/fail analysis. I'm using percentages out of 300%, because after looking back on it, it looks to be the best way to structure this given the three-way overlap.



Again, statistically, Zherog and squinty are MY safest bets, but that's ONLY because they haven't gone on a mission.

==xx==

Now, I also conducted a weighted probabilities list weighted according to my theory. I also made one including me, but because that break my theory, it got really messy really fast and thus only included missions including me that included bentz and someone from mission one.

Here they are in their resepctive order:


Obviously, this is going to make the people I think are suspicious look more suspicious, but I'm posting it to show how the numbers change in relation to other people, not to witch hunt my suspects. Though, I won't complain if anybody does, the purpose is to show connections.

1) People trust me more than Zherog.
2) Spies want to jump on the altimis bandwagon.
3) That if the spies were really stupid enough to only all vote yes when a spy was on the mission, then they failed horribly.

==xx==

Not too much to really respond to.

I can't speak for anybody else, obviously. Me? I wasn't comparing the 2.3 group to the 2.4 group. I was instead comparing the 2.4 group to the proposed 2.5 group. And given those choices, I liked 2.4 better.

that team looks pretty good to me. I'm not quite ready to vote on it, but looking closer into voting patterns, I'm less convinced that Tiny is dangerous, so I'm leaning toward a yes.

Sure is wordy in here. I'll just respond to a few questions I noticed, as I've more or less stated my current view on things previously.


I assume people rejected 2.3 because they didn't want to trust me, regardless of what my team was. They chose RM's team because they'd rather it go through, compared to yours.


Couldn't care less, I had that game in the bag.

BOOOOoooooo!

Didn't bother me at all

Oh you guys are cold. So cold.
You know I can hear you right?