razorborne, I still need to read this thread again for conversion clues.
I analyzed the voting patterns, and they all show that alt was the only spy in this mission.
They also show that Mown was the probable spy on the first mission, but for some reason I don't trust aaarrggh.
We need to make a 5 persons agreement that will stick to the end.

As I was saying I still put my trust in Roaring mouse, and you know what I'm almost certain we should continue with seTiny also.
The voting patters shows a small preference to Zherog over Squinty, but both you and roaring mouse said that you prefer squinty.

What are your thoughts about it?

I want to hear your thoughts, roaring mouse, setiny before I make a proposal, and we need the 5th to continue with until the end.

So why the hell did you vote 'yes' for this mission, if you think mown+razor are white hats, and you are also a white hat.
3 white hats remaining, so you should have known that there was a spy on the mission (room for just 3 white hats in the mission).

I like how I'm "the only spy" on this mission. That's a good one.

Unfortunately, statistically, the safes people to include on missions now are squinty_eyes and Zherog. But that's purely statistically.
My personal hunch is that there were two on mission 1, and one on mission 2 (this hunch was crafted before my calculating the numbers). That said, it's still just a hunch that is psuedo-proven statistically.

That said again, I think this mission was accept only because there was a spy on this mission that wasn't on the previous missions, and that at least two spies voted to accept it. I'm going through votes now, but this was actually a big shock to me.

Going through the votes, I feel like the safest team is this:
Zherog // Alt // seTiny // Squnity

I see that bentz voted no to every mission proposal, I feel to try and hold off until his mission, and not for the good reasons.
I also feel that the spies were looking for an easy scapegoat (me), but because there weren't any spies on previous teams with me on them, they obviously didn't want them to pass. These are obviously hunches based on a plain-sight overview, I'll get more suspicions the deeper I delve.

My other thought is, what is the difference between this mission on other mission proposals.


Now, based on THAT, my guess for spies are:
razorborne
Zherog
bentz

WHY?
1) The only mission razorborne vote yes to, was the mission with him on it, sure everyone does it, but look who else was on it... bentz. I bet they were distancing each other this way.
2) if squinty_eyes is a spy, then he would be purposefully putting at least one other spy on his mission, possibly two.
3) Mown probably proposed the most honest team, and it consisted of two spies. That obviously wasn't going to work.
4) Replace Zherog, a proposed spy (using this theory) with me, and now there is only one spy on the mission and a great scapegoat. Who could deny that plausibility?


I just find it really suspicious that you replace Zherog with me, and all of a sudden the mission proposal is accepted, AND the mission fails. I obviously know that I'm not a spy blahblahblah, but look at the patterns. I spaced them out the easiest way to see them.

So there you have it. The most "statistically" viable team competing against my personal opinions team all in the same post.

Given Mouse's group and your proposed group, I sure as hell liked Mouse's group better. The results of that group helped lead to my hunches - so, you know, without the result of a dead mission there's no hunch for you to rag on.

I don't want to propose a team without I know that there is an agreement of five.

Why?
because If I guess wrong, spies can jump on the wagon, vote 'yes' for the proposal, and we lose the game.
If I guessed right, it will probably be voted down (all spies will vote 'no') - the proposal will be forgotten, and we gained nothing.

The agreement of five will also be the crew for the 5th mission.

To me, the most probable spies pairings are:

1. aaarrggh squinty alt
2,3,4. mown, zherog, alt | mown,squinty,alt | mown,squinty,RM

check them out yourself, I need to go to sleep now.

I'm losing faith in my theory. if I'm right then Zherog can't be scum, and if Zherog can't be scum then Mown's nomination makes no sense. unless he was trying to mindgame us because he thought it'd be voted down, but no one else seemed to be on my theory, so I don't think it makes sense for him to mislead like that. so it's unlikely. I'm going to drop it for now with these new results.

if that's wrong, then I think Aaargh is the most likely spy on the first team and alt is the most likely on the second. the third spy is up in the air. so let's look at likely town. Zherog is looking pretty good to me. bentz voted no on the last team, which raises my opinion of him. so I think a team of Mown, Zherog, bentz, and me looks good. I think the most likely third spy is tiny, so if you wanted to sub squinty or mouse in there somewhere, I wouldn't be opposed.

Hi razor, I couldn't sleep.
first of all, I like to backtrack. why? because If a proposal fails, good chances it failed because of the spies. it is very likely that either proposal 2.2 or 2.3 were good.
If we agree to the alt is a spy theory, then most likely team 2.3 was good.
In that case, since I don't think Mown would offer it if he was a spy, we can go with his offer, and add Mown on the 5th round.

it goes with the aaarrggh,squinty,alt theory.

Then I guess you're right, because I'm not scum.

*




Well, this does fit my Aaaaaaaarrrrrrrgh - Squinty pairing.

Problem is, frankly, I hate agreeing with you.

I know you're joking but the logician in me is really mad about this.

I'm not quite ready to jump on to the "Mown's team was good" theory. at least one spy voted no on it (unless the spy team is Zherog/Mouse/Aaargh and Aaargh forgot to mail his yes.) but that doesn't necessarily mean it's safe. they may have voted it down for having two spies on it, but I think that's unlikely. what's more likely is that there was a lot of heat on Mown and also he didn't put himself on the team, so the spies assumed it'd crash and burn so they rejected because they wanted to blend in. as I said, I don't really trust Tiny. like I don't mind if you leave me off, but I'd rather see you leave Tiny off in favor of Mown if that happens.

Sure Razor - take your time, let's start guessing missions until we guess a mission with one spy to which all spies will vote 'yes' and the other people on the mission will vote 'yes' also and we lose.

BTW, to any one who is buying alt theory of bentz,zherog,razor looking for a scapegoat after mission 2.3 had 2 spies - look at this:

Zherog voted 'yes' for mission 2.3 proposal, so did he look for a scapegoat?
I and Razor both happily turned down proposal 2.4, looking to go for my 2.5 proposal that would have contained both of us - 2 spies.

Furthermore - me and razor voted 'no' for zherog 2.1 proposal, sure - I had to vote 'no', but razor surely didn't have to vote 'no'.

Please read this post carefully!
To me the game is over, I will explain it after.
Sorry in advance for my dictatorship.

my proposal is:
Zherog // seTiny // Roaring Mouse // bentz

my original plan was to try to vote down my own offer,
to check into the less likely alternative:
2 spies on proposal 2.3-> squinty+alt are 'white hats' -> Zherog is a spy, and one more out of the remaining 3.
but...I have no faith in the other resistance members to go back to this offer if it is voted down.

Resistance members here don't seem to understand that a good proposal is more likely to be rejected because spies will make sure of it.
by just cycling over proposals you give/gave spies the option to go with the bad offer.
mission 2.3 was almost surely good in the sense that it had 0 or 2 spies in it, but Roaring Mouse decided to change just one member in his proposal, and gave the spies a point, while keeping us in the dark to whether it had 0 or 2 spies in it.

I also think that not taking a member from the first team in the second mission is absolutely dreadful.
After choosing 3 members not from the first team, and assuming you made a right guess, the 4th guy that wasn't on the first team had 2/3 probability of being a spy, while taking someone from the first team is 1/3 chance of being a spy.

Now, squinty+zherog - one of them is resistance. this resistance member voted 'yes' for an offer that he knows containing a spy - that is a terrible play.

Well, since squinty+alt+aaarrggh theory seems much more likely in every aspect than any other theory my plan is:
rejecting any offer with squinty,alt,aaarrggh until the end of the game.
No one from now on will convince me otherwise for the rest of the game.
so if any resistance member want to continue in other way in this game - he should assume that I am a spy (well...Zherog also, you can't escape it assuming alt+squinty are white hats) - sorry again for being a dictator.
if you want that, Be my guess, At least I have other resistance members for this probable lost.
but please resistance members - try to think things hard - one more strike and we are out.

I won't post here that much from now on, unless I have something very good to say - my play here is done.

So, I'm curious, why do you suspect tiny? I know that I put him on somewhere 50/50 with altimis, but I think both of them being spies is pretty unlikely.

And if you do suspect aaarrrgh as a spy, then you should probably expect there to be a spy in 2.2 (SE, RM, bentz and yourself) as well, which your current model doesn't have.

Personally, I think 2.1, 2.2 and 2.4 are the most telling missions, and would therefore try to exclude SE, altimis, tiny and aaarrrgh. Ideally, I wouldn't want razorborne on a team either, however, if I start to suspect him, then the model falls apart, and I wouldn't know who else to guess is a spy based on it, so I'll more or less have to assume that he isn't a spy.

On choosing 5: Not a bad idea, however that will get us through mission 3 and 4 with successes it puts mission 5 at risk. If the 5th person ends up being a spy he can succeed the mission 4, give town a happy feeling, but then fail mission 5 and win it for the spies. We have to be cautious.

On the third spy: Assuming one spy on both missions, either zherog or squinty is a spy. Out of the two of them I think Zherog is resistance. If he was a spy he would be playing with more confidence and can control the conversation. From his posts it seems as though he is confused and out of his comfort zone. As I've said before his posting style hasn't been the same as when he plays mafia. So out of the two I would have to say Squinty is the spy.

If squinty is the spy then I doubt he would bring another spy on a mission with him clearing bentz, roaring mouse, and razorborne. Meaning either alt or seTiny is the spy. The only mission squinty voted no for was a mission with seTiny and no altimis (Mission 2.3). Everyone on team 1 also voted no. Hinting that altimis is the spy.

Since mown proposed mission 2.3, and razorborne was picked by squinty for his team that leaves aaarrrgh. Aaaargh votes yes for squinty's team 2.2. Votes no on team 2.3 without altimis and squinty. Squinty and Aaarrgh vote yes on team 2.4 with altimis, and a team that failed the mission.

Spy team: aaarrrgh, squinty, altimis seems good. The skeptic in me thinks too good. It seems too clean, too simple.



Altimis proposes spy team razorborne, Zherog, bentz. If this were the spy team then team2.1 would have had one spy. Both razorborne and bentz vote no for this mission, if they had voted yes it would have gone through. Team2.2 would have two spies. Razorborne votes yes while the other two vote no. Team 2.3 would have two spies as well. Zherog votes yes while the other two vote no. Team 2.4 would have only one spy. Zherog votes yes, while the other two vote no. Mock team 2.5 would have two spies chosen by bentz.

There is nothing there that glues that spy team together. This team is too messy and too complicated.

I also don't get this:



Who is the "you" in this paragraph? Roaring Mouse proposed the team without zherog, not any of your spy theories. Also if team 2.4 had failed, bentz was committed to bringing razorborne on the second mission. Why commit to bringing a second spy if he had a guaranteed accepted team?





Emphasized by me for visibility. You think alt is the spy on the second mission, but also place me on the spy list? I was on the second mission as well. So your theory is now that there was two spies on mission 2?

First your going theory was there were two spies on mission 1. Now your theory seems to be two spies on mission 2. It seems that you are just trying to keep a spy in the clear. However I think you are town. Any team with you as a spy gets as messy as Altimis's spy team proposal.


Preview edit:
@Bentz: Well that's not the attitude to have.

I am not at all optimistic about this game, and I'm afraid that we will lose because of me. As I have already stated, I voted yes on this mission because from my perspective, it was better than a mission containing a player from mission 1. However, that statistic is only true for me (and Mown). I still don't know who seems more likely to be a spy of Mown and Razor, which does ndeed make this look like a lost game. Especially since it seems very unlikely for anyone to ever trust me again.

This statistic is not true.
After 3 players that aren't on the first team, assuming there was no spy on the first 3. the 4th from your perspective has 2/3 probability of being a spy, while razor had 1/2.
And from your perspective there shouldn't be a difference between proposal 2.3 & 2.4 - to the first you voted 'no', to the second 'yes'.
start by voting 'yes' to my proposal, if it will indeed go through and be successful - we will just need to take one guy from the 1st mission on mission 5.

bentz, all your statistics assume that there was exactly one spy on each failed mission. unless you have actual evidence to back that supposition, stop it.

honestly? I'm not at all sure who the third spy is. I haven't played this much, and voting analyses seem to go WIFOM super fast so I'm a little lost. I thought I had something, but now it's looking pretty unlikely. Tiny's been giving me some weird vibes. I'll take a closer look at the full voting record today and see if that indicates anything more.

that's true. as you mentioned earlier, spies can't let a successful mission 2 go. actually that says a lot, I'm gonna go look over voting patterns again for sure.

the odds of there being two spies by accident on mission 1 are pretty low. the odds on mission 2, though, are noticeably higher. add to that the possibility that there were two spies on one or the other by design and it becomes pretty unreasonable to assume that there was exactly one on each. it's really dangerous to assume there must be a spy between Squinty and Zherog.

no, that's just a consequence of my current suspicions. remember, even if you two pick at random you have a 50/50 chance of getting exactly one fail, and you can also try to drop clues for the other one. so it's not insane that you'd wind up getting that result with two people, so again I'm not interested in discarding it if my suspicions of players lead me there.

my first theory was two spies on mission one. I don't have a second theory. it's just suspicions. as I said to Mown I'm really not sure who spy 3 is, but I suspect you. I'm going to go review voting records, see what I can find that way.


Preview edit:
@Bentz: Well that's not the attitude to have.[/quote]