Look, we can all follow your logic, its not exactly revolutionary. The problem is the steps taken to arrive there. Namely, some rather huge assumptions on your part (yes, assumptions, there has yet to be a single piece of corroborating evidence) to get there. In a vacuum, that might not be so bad. You're theorising, and thats a thing. Problem is, this isnt a vacuum. This is a setting where the plan you've proposed, based entirely on assumptions, just happens to lead exactly to the scum win condition.

The following is the most fullproof plan I can come up with given the information we have:

6 living players currently: 15377, Scarlet, Eli, KoD, Garren, Rubik.
# scum remaining: 0 or 1.

We lynch Rubik today.
1) He is scum.
We either win immediately, or no kill/no lynch next day to victory (unless anyone wants to make a case for a 3-1-5 setup).

2) He is town.
We conclude that the info he gave us is correct. This means that
2.1) We are safe. But cannot be 100% sure of it yet.
2.2) There is a possessed one still among us.
The game plan for these two branches are identical.
Because we also surmised last day, and at the start of this day, that if there was a rotating ghost, the one who is town now should come forward. So why doesn't he? Because there no longer is a rotating ghost since the Cultist died.
What is the best way to clear everyone? Use the roles given to us. In this case, Garren's role.
If 2.1 is true, Garren lives each day. We lynch an unknown until Garren cleared us all, lynch Garren to be safe and NL next day to victory.
If 2.2 is true, Garren has to die at night. If he does and his role therefor confirmed, me and Eli are cleared. We go into a 3-1 with 2 confirmed Honest. Otherwise possessed will be outed through 2.1's system.

Any questions?

Well I don't much like the bit where I die but it's a solid plan. I'd personally prefer to just kill Numbers or KoD but I understand that's a hard sell to make since nobody ever trusts me.

@Eli:

I'm not the only one making assumptions about the game Eli. If you want to get really pedantic about it, there's no way to be sure about whether or not there is scum left unless you lynch down to one person. And there's nothing to say that the last one standing wont' be possessed. Now, like me, assumptions have been made that perhaps the last remaining scum is locked on one person since Neo's death. That is an assumption isn't it?

And when it comes to ending the game, refer to Alt's opening post for today. Am I saying that it is a fact that we have to no lynch to get out? Well, given what I believe concerning what Neo has stated and having had no deaths today, I believe it, but it may not be the case. After all, I'm capable of understanding and accepting the possibility that we MAY have a scum left even though Neo died. You already know my stance on that though. Yet, let's say that is the case, the only way to find that scum is to lynch people until you find it. And I ask you, what if the assumption that the scum can no longer rotate is wrong?


@Scar:

Ah, I think that question was answered by you with that break down, but I do have a question then. What if there was no possessed from D2 coming forward because, mechanically, a possession never happened? I refer to the point I made towards Numbers about Rubik being told at the end of N1 that he was no longer possessed.

Okay, two things.

One, making the assumption that in a game of mafia, there might still be mafia left, is a touch different than assuming we have won due to your set of unproven notions. Not to mention, one set of assumptions leads to a chance of us immediately losing the game, and the other set means the game plays out, and we may win or lose in a few days time. If you cant see why one of those assumptions is infinitely worse than the others....well, shrug.

And moving on to your point about Alt's opening post. I certain dont have me escaping anywhere in my win conditions, so I dont care if we escape now, or after we've murdered and eaten each other to stave off starvation. Why do you care so much about escaping now?

@KoD, you're pretty sure you know how this game works, but I can ask you two simple questions that you won't be able to answer, and not being able to answer them will reveal that you don't know how the bulk of this game actually works. The first is what is the blood cultists exact win condition? The second is how exactly does possession work? The best you can do is guess at the answers to these (unless you want to add to your claim?). So no, you don't know how this game works. Since your entire argument hinges on "Guys...come on...trust me!" and you've been oh so good at leading town wrong so far despite your assertions today that you've been leading town in the right direction the whole game (key phrase here for why I bring up your actions today), this is where this conversation will end.

@Garren, Scar, Eli: Anything else you guys think need discussing today?

@Rubik: Any actual thoughts to contribute today or are you satisfied just sitting back on this one?

Assumptions are still assumptions Eli. Using one as though it is an unproven fact, like me, makes you like me.

Ok, let me try to channel KISS:

In order to end the game, we escape. We can do that now if you think like I do, which it is obvious you don't, or we can do that later when we have just one person.

Basically, if we have no scum left like I believe we do, then we will be in this game until we solve the puzzle as Neo had stated with his post. If you believe otherwise, then you keep lynching till you find the last scum or are left with one person standing. As a by the by, did you miss my point to you about believing what Neo said about the puzzle because he was not under pressure and not believing other stuff he said since he was under pressure and facing a lynch? Do you find fault in that assumption?

Hey Numbers, let's not bring trust in to this and work on what we happen to know as you like to do.

Can I answer those questions beyond a shadow of a doubt? No one can. Does that mean I'm wrong? Not necessarily. I work with what I know and try to come to what I believe, deja' vu, is the best course. I applied a similar approach D1 when I pointed out PopPa. I did the same when I went after Neo D2.

As far as I'm concerned, I seek to do no less, and that applies to what I believe today. We have a good amount of information. Am I making assumptions like Eli pointed out? Sure. Does that make me wrong? No. As has been said by myself to you when you posed a possible scenario as well as by Scar's plan, there are other ways to approach it. I don't have to agree with it since I believe I came to the correct conclusion. And you, as if this needs to be stated, don't need to agree with me.

Pause. What do you mean I've been oh so good at leading town wrong? If you're going to say something like that, then please point out specifically where I have done such.

Probably the fact that you spend each day building these huge arguments against people, then in the last moment say 'Lets lynch the inactive player', rendering your whole day moot. And you got lucky, both times.

If you had your way yesterday Eli would be dead, Neo would be alive, and you'd still be perpetuating the notion that there is only two possessed in this game and we don't need to look for anything else. Go ahead and tell me that you were leading the town in the right direction there, I'll wait for you to make up some bs story. In the mean time, the only reason you switched from Eli to Neo yesterday was because time was running out and the support you wanted for an Eli lynch was starting to sway towards a Rubik lynch. Your vote wasn't about lynching Neo, it was about keeping Rubik alive. An action you're continuing today despite common sense telling you to do otherwise.

Seriously? PopPa was at least posting as was Neo (when he was called out). Inactive is a tad far more so than lurking. Besides I certainly didn't see you not casting stones the last two days so what ground on high are you standing on?

That last post was directed at Eli just for reference.

As for you Numbers, I apparently did have my way since I was the one who started the votes on Neo and got him lynched.

So you're going for 'Yeah but the guy I randomly called for a lynch on at the end was a bad guy!' and thinking we're all going to ignore the 90% of the day you spent pursuing me beforehand?

And no, you're wrong Numbers. You say support was swaying in favor of a Rubik lynch.

With exception to Neo (who probably would have gone with majority anyway), Garen was not on board with lynching Rubik as far as I can recall. Garen, if I'm wrong about that pls correct me.

Yesterday it was pretty much

Believed Rubik: Myself, Scar, and Garen

Didn't believe Rubik: Eli

I leave your name out of that list for a very specific reason. Yesterday you were voting Scar and had expressly stated two things that contradict one another: You wanted to see both Eli and Rubik live and you were ok with seeing Rubik hang. I never got a direct answer out of you as far as which stance you were solidly on. You simply just picked and pulled whatever you wanted to back up what you were saying. And you continue to do that today as well.

@Eli:

I was going more for the "I'm doing more than you are" approach. Because, you know, D2 is not the sum total of all I have done.

This is indeed true.

I've been at Anime Expo since Thursday and will be there until Sunday night. Posting anything sizable is hard from a phone during brief pauses.

I am double checking with the mod, but after re-reading my ability I think I would have known if I had been attacked. If this is the case, there was no night kill attempt.

I think the facts that a blood cultist died, the theme of the game is possession, I started the game possessed while being the only medic in a game with no one claiming a killing role, and that we had a town role blocker flip all point towards alignment changing. Maybe the blood cultist kills on even nights. Or maybe possession cycles on odd mornings. The are plenty of things more likely than me spinning a huge yarn at the beginning of day 1.

If you decide you want me dead, it would be better to first have our investigative role investigate someone every night while I protect him and we no lynch. If he chooses to investigate me and I am targeting him and no one else and someone dies tomorrow, I am cleared. There's also the possibility of me being NKed, which if fine if I will be lynched anyways. If he dies, I'm scum because the role blocker already died.

Will give more thoughts later.

Ebwop: huge yarn on D2

@KoD, I said the support you wanted for a Eli lynch, not the support you already had. Three of you wouldn't meet majority even if Garren switched his vote, thus you had to convince a fourth. You attempted me, but I was clearly falling on the side of lynching Rubik. Rubik, despite being the other side of that coin, hadn't moved an inch on Eli all day. So expecting him to in the final 24 would have been a gamble. Neo similarly had made no move on Eli but had even less vested interest in the lynch, not being one of the proposed. That just leaves Eli, which you're unlikely to swing onto lynching himself. So as you can see, Rubik was mounting support in me. Both my and Eli's arguments had fare more logical weight than you or Scar's did. Had I thrown a vote for Rubik we'd be in a dead sprint that would pretty much lock one or the other into being lynched. Thus you went for a third option that you hoped everybody would back to keep Rubik off the lynch ballot.

As for my stances, both today and yesterday, they are quite clear. I've done nothing to make them ambiguous. Seeing the merit in an information lynch is not a new concept. Neither is choosing to lynch based on scuminess over that. Nor is making it clear you'll back a wagon if it is deemed necessary to avoid a no lynch in a majority necessity game. Since none of these are mutually exclusive concepts either, I don't see what you're problem with understanding my stance is.

VOTES (4 to lynch)


DAY ENDS: 71 hours from this post[/quote]