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razorborne
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 5:23 pm 
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GobO_Fire wrote:
razorborne wrote:
altimis wrote:
for length
a) that's not how its works. since there are multiple spies, you're going to have overlapping percentages. if you add all of them together, you should get 300%, not 100%. so the 32% and 45% statistics are correct.


No, Alt's math is correct. The "15s" are worth 10.86; the 21s are worth 15.21. (10.86 x 5) + (15.21 x 3) = 100. (OK, actually 99.93 due to rounding.)
but there's three spies, so the total should be 300%, right? if you're on a third of potential spy teams, then in one out of three scenarios you are a spy. therefore, you are a spy 33% of the time. therefore, the odds of you being a spy in a randomly selected scenario is 33%.

:duel:

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Mown
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 5:39 pm 
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In an absolute sense, the probability that someone on team 1 is a spy is P(A spy | One person is a spy) + P(A spy | Two persons are spies) + P(A spy | Three persons are spies). It might be something around 45%, I don't know. It sounds somewhat reasonable, but I'm not all that thrilled about doing the math for it right now, and it's soon going to be irrelevant. 33% is only assuming that there is exactly one spy, and I assume the above calculations takes all options into consideration.

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Roaring Mouse
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 6:50 pm 
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razorborne wrote:
bentz wrote:
So my proposal will be:
bentz,razorborne,roaring mouse,?

? will be selected as follows: if roaring mouse&razorborne can decide between themselves on a name - this will be the name.
if not, each will propose a name to me, I will choose between their offers.
for completeness, I want everyone to know that I'm going to be suggesting Squinty here. Neo has confirmed that that vote was a mistake, and of the two available choices (Squinty and Tiny) Squinty strikes me as the more trustworthy in case my theory is wrong.

:duel:


If not enough people like my proposal I'd be happy with bentz picking seTiny. But that would be Squinty's proposal that was rejected. I'd be good with Squinty or seTiny.


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Aaarrrgh
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:08 pm 
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Well, at least all of this accomplished something for me: I did not know what to think of anyone, and alt and Razor managed to agree that it is best for me, statistically, to see a team that has neither Mown or Razor on it. And because I knew that one of them is a spy, but not which one, that also seems right from the personal, common sense perspective. So I would rather see RM's proposal than bentz', at least until I can get a better read on Razor.

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seTiny
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 9:35 pm 
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I don't know about the statistics, only math subjected that gave me a headache, but if we bring someone from team one won't that muddy the results of mission 2?


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Zherog
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:17 pm 
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I would think so, yes. That was why I chose to exclude everybody from M1 when I put my team together.

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Aaarrrgh
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 12:19 am 
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It might muddy the results, but remember that we don't actually need to figure out exactly who the spies are, we just need to keep them off of three missions. I've seen games end in Resistance victory where one or more spies never got identified. Thus it is not always preferable to go for the team that provides the most information, if you think another team would be more likely to pass the mission. Of course, I think RM's team is more likely to pass than bentz', so this is a moot point at the moment.

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NeoSilk
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:38 am 
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Around 13 hours left to vote on this proposal.
I've gotten 6 out of the 9 votes now.

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Zherog
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:14 pm 
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Ugh. I don't like Mouse's group. I don't like the three bentz has said he'll propose. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh!

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Mown
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:52 pm 
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Rock and a hard place, eh?
I think the same.

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NeoSilk
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:25 pm 
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Recap

Overall Score:
Resistance = 0
Spies = 1

Mission 1: The Metaboard -- Failure
Spoiler


Mission 2 - MTG
Spoiler


Turn Order
Spoiler


Proposal 4 has been accepted, by a vote of 7-2

mouse // bentz // seTiny // altimis - please send in your result cards! I believe I normally give 24 hours for this, but, with it being a weekend, if it takes longer, that's fine.

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Mown
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:00 pm 
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That was a surprisingly positive response. Probably not a good sign, but the chanses for that were pretty high, all things considered.

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razorborne
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:04 pm 
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a spy voted yes to that proposal.

just so everyone knows.

:duel:

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I tend to agree with Razor.

Mown wrote:
I'll never again complain about raz's criteria.


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Mown
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:05 pm 
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At least one.
And given that a successful team on turn 2 is pretty much outright GG, it's probably going to tank. I can't imagine a spy accepting it if it's not going to get sabotaged.

I'd also wager that it's at most one spy between RM, bentz and razorborne, if any. However, if there was a spy among them, I'd assume that more people would have rejected it. Although that could look suspicious, given how scaredy people are of the ultimatum that is X.5 missions, so it's not perfect. I assume there's some vital information somewhere in that train of thought though.

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razorborne
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:31 pm 
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Mown wrote:
At least one.
And given that a successful team on turn 2 is pretty much outright GG, it's probably going to tank. I can't imagine a spy accepting it if it's not going to get sabotaged.

yeah if this team is all town, then we just run it again next time, then run it with some irrelevant person who can't affect things round 4. there is no way this is all town without at least three no votes. I can only hope there's multiple spies here, but like I'm pretty sure it's just alt.

:duel:

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I tend to agree with Razor.

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I'll never again complain about raz's criteria.


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bentz
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:42 pm 
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not only that - assuming there was only one spy on the first mission, zherog+squinty votes are surprising.
If there is no spy on this mission, it means that they are both spies, and if they are spies, why would they vote yes for this mission, I would really like to hear from them.
It was a terrible idea to not take someone from the first mission.


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Mown
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:17 pm 
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razorborne wrote:
Mown wrote:
At least one.
And given that a successful team on turn 2 is pretty much outright GG, it's probably going to tank. I can't imagine a spy accepting it if it's not going to get sabotaged.

yeah if this team is all town, then we just run it again next time, then run it with some irrelevant person who can't affect things round 4. there is no way this is all town without at least three no votes. I can only hope there's multiple spies here, but like I'm pretty sure it's just alt.

I'm not sure if my opinion on that is worth much, but I've sort of warmed up on altimis, although not because of his plays.
bentz wrote:
not only that - assuming there was only one spy on the first mission, zherog+squinty votes are surprising.

I don't think zherog's vote is all that surprising, given that he stated his preference on not having anyone from 1.1 on the second mission, as well as having a high chance from being excluded from your team. Pick your poison, etc, and he wanted the option that wouldn't have the chance of falsely giving the blame to razorborne, I suppose.

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NeoSilk
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:19 pm 
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The planning was perfect. It seemed so easy. But, when the hammers dropped, they bounced off the helmets the goblins were wearing. Helmets? There's no other explanation aside from them being informed about the plan. It looks like there was a spy on this mission as well.

Recap

Overall Score:
Resistance = 0
Spies = 2

Mission 1: The Metaboard -- Failure
Spoiler


Mission 2: MTG -- Failure
Spoiler


Turn Order
Spoiler



Mission 3: PbP

Goblin mafia? Goblin resistance? Goblin Pathfinder? Everyone was willing to look the other way for a while, until the goblins in the pathfinder game caught a bunch of kittens and started roleplaying eating the kittens. Kittens.
This is another 4 man cyber mission. At the same time, all three of their games will need to be hacked to remove all goblins from the active player lists. The 4th person will stand guard outside of the terminal room to make sure the gobins don't catch them.

Bentz - leadership passes to you. Again, it's normally 24 hours to propose the team, however, with it being a weekend, if it takes a bit longer, no problem.

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bentz
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:02 pm 
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Already saying that I'm taking razorborne with me.

Going by the assumption that there was one spy on this mission, one spy on the first mission, and one spy outside.
there are 12 possibilities in my opinion, and I'm already thinking about who are the likely 5 persons to take, because we need to get this one right, and add the 5th on the 4th mission (which will always pass assuming we got this one right) - the question is who will be the 5th in the last mission.


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Zherog
PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:08 pm 
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bentz wrote:
not only that - assuming there was only one spy on the first mission, zherog+squinty votes are surprising.
If there is no spy on this mission, it means that they are both spies, and if they are spies, why would they vote yes for this mission, I would really like to hear from them.
It was a terrible idea to not take someone from the first mission.


Sure, this is easy to dispute. Your premise (that squinty and I are both spies) is wrong, so the conclusion you drew from the premise is also wrong.

*

So, facts that we know:

* At least one person in the set of (Aaaaaaarrrrgh, Mown, Razor) is a spy
* At least one person in the set of (Mouse, Bentz, Tiny, Alt) is a spy

We also have the voting records for each mission as facts; if you want to see those go re-read Neo's post.

*

Mown wrote:

bentz wrote:
not only that - assuming there was only one spy on the first mission, zherog+squinty votes are surprising.

I don't think zherog's vote is all that surprising, given that he stated his preference on not having anyone from 1.1 on the second mission, as well as having a high chance from being excluded from your team. Pick your poison, etc, and he wanted the option that wouldn't have the chance of falsely giving the blame to razorborne, I suppose.


I actually believe Razor is a White Hat. I also believe you're a White Hat. My suspicion - no evidence, just a hunch - is that Aaaaargh is the spy from the first mission.

I'm not sure who the spy is from the second mission. No hunches there yet.

I also suspect Squinty is the third spy. Again, purely hunch.

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