we have to lynch rubik eventually so we're not saving a lynch by postponing his. Having the hunter shoot him is a possibility I hadn't thought of, though.

Given that Popular Pariah could have been our huntsman, relying on a power role we assume to be there is probably a bad plan.

I don't see any sort of compelling evidence than indicates the wolves will only get 1 kill between the two of them. There isn't any the other way either, but it's better to plan for that eventuality.

I don't like how you are trying to swing this notion that lynching Rubik is a waste of a lynch. Yes, we know he is going to become the wolf. Yes, if the huntsman is alive we have a way to deal with him now.

But here's the thing. Say the huntsman is alive. By choosing to not lynch Rubik we get that much closer to risking him today. Why bail on getting rid of the wolf to possibility take out not only a town, but potentially a town power role. Sure, we have a chance at finding the real wolf, but it leaves open possible outcomes that don't play out well how I see them.

If Pariah was a power role you'd think he'd have either said something or tried to prevent his lynch.



Rubik has the wolf information, maybe he'll be able clarify.



I never said it was a waste. I also never said one scenario was better than the other.

I presented my thoughts on the subject for a point of discussion. Otherwise I could see people being content on the Rubik lynch and let the day end.



If he is alive and targets Rubik then what is the risk of losing him?

What possible outcomes do you see?

If we lynch Rubyk today, he dies town and can win with us when we win later. If we forgo lynching Rubik today in order to better our own odds he dies a wolf and loses the game (presuming that town wins, which, I am assuming we will). That's not a fate I'd like to give the person who drew the wolf's only sire attempt only to give it up to help us. My vote will be to lynch Rubik today.

In terms of trying to figure out who among the remainder might be the wolf... I am suspicious of KoD for Day 1 shenanigans that I pointed out earlier. I am also growing suspicious of seTiny for his desire to keep Rubik alive today. Niklor, Neo, and Freddeh-scum are null reads for me. Lilan reads town.

Based on what? The hope that if he had a power role he would give more ****?



I have the feeling Rubik has already told us all he knows, but if he is holding back some intel that can enlighten us, that would be nice.



I personally found the fact of considering things to do that involve letting Rubik potentially become a threat to read as saying you would prefer not to lynch him. This was probably my own error. I apologize for that. It is true you are trying to drum up discussion where Rubik's Big Reveal has left town satisfied. I apparently just misread into it.



The risk is in mislynching him. Unless he is somehow revealed (DO NOT DO THIS) there is always the chance we end up misreading the situation and find the huntsman to be the scummiest. We lynch him and then Rubik is still alive and suddenly having a very different outlook towards town with no way of dealing with him in the night. That is the risk of losing the huntsman I refer to.



Already gave the outcome where Rubik gets his own kill aside from the original wolf's kill, resulting in a pair of townie death's tonight. Another possibility is we lynch our huntsman, resulting in having to spend a lynch tomorrow to deal with Rubik instead. Given the fact role information appears to not be revealed (Though maybe that is only for vanilla and players with relevant power roles will have them attached), it's likely the Huntsman would out himself if we appeared to be heavily pursuing him, but that is not really something I'd like to happy as early as D2.



If it actually seemed likely to better our odds of winning, not lynching Rubik would be the thing to do. However, that seems like the much more dangerous game to me. So, lynching Rubik seems the best move to put town closer to victory.



What about Lilan seems town?

If you leave me alive, I will most likely carry out all future night kills, thus nullifying the ability for the guard to spot the wolf's night kills.

It is both in my best interest and the town's best interest for me to die today.

---

If you are interested in lynching someone today, consider the possibility of having an unofficial vote and having the vig shoot that person during the night. It will also give us a confirmed town player tomorrow assuming no counter claims.

It is also very useful in the sense that it would force the wolf to decide between trying to find another power role with a night kill or trying to kill the confirmed town.

Considering options is always a good thing. I will often argue against someone or something I agree with just to make sure it is the correct decision. This goes for real life and in game.



Except this game has a 24 hour voting period after majority which cuts the risk of accidentally lynching someone . Say we voted for Player A. He claims huntsman. If Player B counter claims huntsman, then one of them is the wolf (or really bad town player). We unvote. Vote for Rubik during the 24 hour extension and then the true huntsman can kill the fake claim.

If no one counter claims then we have a semi confirmed town. I say semi, because there is a possibility PP was a power role, but I find it unlikely. We still unvote. Vote for Rubik during the 24 hour extension. Though if it was the hunter then he would definitely have to use his ability because he would likely be NKed that night.

Having the huntsman on the block would have been the easiest scenario. The guardsman or healer would be harder to sort out, but it would give us a targets if there are counter claims. We will probably run into these scenarios in the next few days



Figured as much.

Does the information you got last night suggest that you and the wolf would get a separate NK?



It would also give the healer a 1 in 6 chance of stopping the wolf NK. Though if the healer REALLY believe the person voted on is town they could stop the hunter's NK, but then that would result in a waste of both abilities on a feeling of town.

Yeesh, I totally forget about this while at my Event, and I didn't even get so much as a prod :o.

Anyway, I'll read back through asap and get caught up.

Typically you would think that any person that is town would play "right" and not get themselves purposefully lynched. PP actively played against the town by maintaining his desire to keep up his lurker play rather than help the town. To top that off, he never even claimed vanilla or otherwise so he very well could have died as a power role. We're better off just lynching Rubik now. Unless you want to be sadistic to him as a reward for the information he brought forth to us.

Now, I do recall Rubik's earlier plan of using the Guardsman and Healer's abilities in a way where the Guardsman claims and the healer protects the Guardsman while the wolf can't counter claim. This is a good way of helping us to get towards the wolf that much faster since at least one player (the Guardsman) won't be the wolf. And we have no need to expect a counterclaim from the wolf for obvious reasons. So I do think we should follow this, but that is up to the Guardsman (assuming it was not PP).

@Nik: Did you not think Tiny was joking with his comments about Rubik turning?

@Neo: That works.

If rubik is willing to stab the wolf's back to win the game then i am willing to stab rubik's back to win the game. If not lynching him today turns out to be benificial to the town, then I'm not in favor of lynching him anyway so he can win the game. It might be worth vigging rubik instead of lynching him.

I would be inclined to not have the guardsman claim unless they are threatened by a lynch or have a positive investigation result.

Can you point to the comment you are referring to because I am drawing a blank.

The small exchange between Tiny and myself that had in it. It's not that hard to miss since you already commented on it to Tiny and he responded to you.

And come again Lilian? Why would you want to get rid of Rubik so he doesn't win if we don't lynch him? He'll be a wolf after all and, assuming you are town, you should want him to lose at that point.

Ebwop: Disregard my question Lilian. I failed to read your statement properly at the end.

What is beneficial to the town is eliminating however many people we suspect of being the wolf. Rubik's plan helps to accomplish that without much risk to the Guardsman. Can you argue a more beneficial way to finding the wolf?

Thinking about it more, I think you're right.

The guardsman should claim and the healer should protect him, and we should lynch rubik today.

Probably my fault for not quoting it, but I was responding to the second part of that post, not to your joke followed up by Tiny's joke.

Unless you are arguing the entire post was a joke, which I guess you can.



On the matter of the guardsman claiming, I will personally oppose it based on the following: Pariah didn't reveal his role and his death reveal didn't either. While it would be a pretty risky gamble, there is a chance our guardsman is already dead and the other wolf may leap at this chance to potential play the guardsman. It is a very deadly game to play because if counterclaimed it pretty much means the wolf will lose, but if Pariah did happen to be a power role it will likely result in scum victory.

Probably most scum players are too cautious to go all in like that, but the possibility is there and I therefore oppose the idea of our "guardsman" claiming.

the odds of pariah being the guardsmen were 1 in 8, which means if the wolf claims guardsman we instantly have a 7 in 8 chance of winning. I'm fine with those odds.

PP could have been any of the three town power roles. It's a good risk to take for town. Not so for the wolf. It's worth it and I find it silly to not follow this approach to simplifying who might be the wolf.

Worst case scenario beyond wolf taking the 1/8 gamble and winning is febb being the healer and our guardsman dying tonight, which isn't terrible because presumably the guardsman can clear someone with their results today and that still lives us in a very good situation

I'm not sure I'm sold on the guardsman claiming. If he did see someone, I expect it would be a 50/50 chance of being the healer or the wolf (since the hunter apparently didn't shoot anyone last night).
If they didn't see anyone, yes, it would eliminate 1 player.

Plus, from the OP:

To me, that means that there is specific information about the roles that are not public information. Plus, the "and/or a healer" could mean that we don't have a healer. Or, we might not have a guardsman. So, the wolf could claim guardsman, and not have anyone else claim (or PP could have been it), taking us away from our goal. Or, the guardsman could claim, expecting to be saved from the Doc, and get killed.

I would suggest that the guardsman not claim unless they are about to get lynched, or, if they were able to successfully track someone using a night action.