or i guess why do you think it did

i wouldn't have thought it a predictable outcome based on day 1

I definitely would have expected KoD to draw some heat, not necessarily from you. But yeah, I've maintained from the start that someone is framing KoD. Which by extension means I would have expected people to fun for him based on this kill.

*to gun for him

No. That comment was made towards you other one. "You didn't even bother to say you didn't kill Amber," or some such nonsense. That's what is obvious and shouldn't have to be stated (despite your focus on it).

A major pitfall to your focus in the various conversations today is that you're trying to look at things in hindsight and theory. Yes, lurker kills are beneficial because they yield little info. I do believe that; however, that is no indication of how I'd act as scum despite how much you want to push the notion you know my scum meta.

And my comment about killing Amber being risky was made wrt to how you've sat there talking about how you know my meta and why I'd make the choices I would. You've talked about how you (hope) the scum team would be more diligent/analytical when making their kill choice (as opposed to killing something "just because"). You've talked, in detail, about how I must be scum due to it being Amber who was killed (something you connect to my perceived scum meta -- despite numerous instances of having not killed Amber despite the opportunity... despite how much she lurks). Yet, again, I am positive you didn't even give it any thought that I, as scum, would be more cautious of killing Amber because of how her death may be perceived.



Anyway, my comment about the obvious was never in reference to what you're asking about with those two comments (as I said at the top).

in other words, it has nothing to do with whether you killed amber or not, obviously you would say you didn't kill amber. It has to do with the chain of thought that would hypothetically lead to you killing or not killing amber.

I believe i do know your scum meta to some extent as anyone who plays with you does. Do you disagree that you don't generally suggest killing a lurker on night 1? You seem to have more or less agreed with that notion, albeit with slippery wording. There's nobody who can perfectly predict the way that you'll play, probably not even yourself, but Its entirely valid for me to use isolated information about you to make educated guesses about your alignment.

If its a given that you're more likely than the average player to want to kill a lurker on night 1 as mafia and a lurker dies on night 1 then it necessarily follows that you are more likely to be mafia than the average player, and i would be surprised if you weren't more likely than the average player to want to kill a lurker on night 1. There may be a lot more piece involved and addressing them is useful, but the core of the argument should be valid.

Certainly i think the idea "KoD is more likely than the average player to kill a lurker on N1" is a lot more likely to be true than "KoD would be hesitant to kill amber on N1 for fear of the reaction", although both could easily be true and because the degree of the proposed hesitation is difficult to quantify its possible that assuming both are true could result in amber dying N1 as being either a scumtell or a town tell. The latter could be false though, and there is a third piece of information "KoD wants to shoot amber to fulfill a promise" that factors into this too.

And that post of yours, right there, is why you're being intentionally inconsistent now.

intentionally inconsistent?

Rag


A chain of thoughts that you can't even approximate let alone approximate fairly. You're strictly intent on seeing me lynched which is why you continuously talk about some stuff like my opinion on lurker death or how you look at a variety of factors (you don't) to sus out scum. What you do do is play up your flawed argument to accomplish what you want: Seeing me lynched.



Sure, if you weren't making it in such a bad way. In bad faith I believe is what they said during D1. Case in point: Amber lurks a lot regardless of the game. You've mentioned numerous times I could have killed Amber, but didn't because I've shown a tendency to actually play the game. Now, with Amber dead, you're laying her death at my feet and claiming that all the previous stuff doesn't matter (even though it does), and your major point is that I was PR hunting her.

Everything about your argument is in bad faith. It is flawed at its foundation.




Let's use your question and the responses generated so far then. You've had some people say they would have killed someone else (I think Zinger initially said he'd have gone after Skystone I think) while you've had some people say they would have gone after Amber (something Zinger said recently too no less). Aside from how "insightful" that line of questioning has been, has it told you anything about how much more likely I am or am not to do something compared to others? Because I don't think you're keeping track as opposed to just throwing stuff to see if it sticks.



Now you're taking that seriously as opposed to the start?

If we assume that a scum team containing KoD would kill Amber 1/3 of the time (seems fair based on KoD pointing out three different lurkers who could be potential targets) and make that the only significant factor in this calculation, then KoD had roughly a 55% chance of being scum. Which is indeed higher that the average player (who sits at 24% in this model), but far from an automatic condemnation. Especially considering the fact that we are not accounting for anyone else's actions.

I'm willing to actually sure my work on this, but not while I'm on mobile.

*show my work

(And that's why I don't want to do it on mobile)

Im done hearing about it from everybody that already said stuff. Ppl that haven't said stuff about kod and rag are sus

I understand that aaarrgh really wants to show his math that's fine

What ur calculations say about the remaining lurkers? Rag and kod is town vs town then you would think there scum

We're gonna have to get rid of zinger too. He's not even putting up a scum hunting act. I don't know if he's mafia or not but better safe than sorry. If there's any vigs out there you know what to do

I'm 360 no scope tevish
Vote: Tevish

i certainly don't think KoD is confirmed scum or anything. 55% is probably even higher than i would have pegged him.

Its true that I'm not happy with zinger's play this game.

@Zinger: If you were partners with CL would you still vote for him?

What do you think if he was with Naga. How he was like "oh I apologize", wouldnt that be a sick play

And course he would vote for me, my scum buddies vote for me all the time over any little excuse. Look at last game

Yes. If I was Mafia and CL was my buddy I would bus him faster than I bussed Faux-Razor in Infamous mafia.

That guy needs to go. Then we can focus on the game without distraction. But as is, it's impossible to scumhunt or even properly play the game when someone is setting everything on fire the way he is and does.