Well, both Rag and JD placed votes which could have lost the game if they were incorrect votes from town players, so I would say you're probably right.

I could also see Rag doing a late game bus, to be honest. If one of them is assuming that today's results will chain into a favorable result tomorrow, turning against each other might be the smarter move.

I'm operating under the reasoning of rubik/aaarrrgh as I don't see rag and aaarrrgh starting off day against each other. You had aaarrrgh's lurker campaign from yesterday, but that easily drops away in lylo and was directed at Rubik yesterday anyway so that's not really an essentially busable reason. Conversely if aaarrrgh/rubik is a team aaarrrgh has to switch gears today to avoid a bus hence the shift to Rag. Top it off with myself and Rag being the only prominent neighbors during the night when aaarrrgh and Rubik would have had a chance to discuss abilities and use during that initial night 0 (dusky did post, but it was shortly before deadline if I have my time stamps synced up) and you have a more prominent reason why two neighbors were possibly selected by the neighborizor.

That's my train anyway.

one shot nested watcher (11)
neighbour (-1)

rubik wasn't in the neighbourhood until night 1

Hmmm. What Jay is saying makes sense to me. (Apart from the night 0 Rubik)

Rubik, what's your voting intention? Are you leaning towards someone?

Also, might be worth looking at the (claimed) points again because we know Neo's role was real.

Rag: +10
Aaarrrgh: +22
Rubik: +21
Me: +1
Jay: ??? (if you said it, it's too far back for me)

Neo's role was real, but inaccurate. The sample size is too small to draw any really strong conclusions. Except that Dusky is unlikely to be scum if all claims are true, as that number is so far from the median.

if dusky is telling the truth i think the odds of her being scum are very close to zero

of course we have no reason to believe dusky is telling the truth aside from maybe a personality read that only JD would be in a position to make

But we know how the system works. It's a raffle. The conclusions aren't certain but can be strong. A small sample with a high number of tickets makes it actually more useful.

So, I think Jay had 12 points, which would mean a total of 56 tickets, out of which 22 are yours. So 39% of the tickets.

assuming jay is 15 because that seems around average the odds of each player being mafia assuming all information is truthful and only based on the raffle system and not additional information are, based on my randomly applying operations to numbers in what might be an approximation of real mathematics:

Rag: 16%
Argh: 29%
JD: 24%
Dusky: 1%
Rubik: 29%

i don't think this a particular useful exercise for a variety of reasons but it is kind of interesting

i wonder how one would actually mathematically calculate this

I'm considering voting Aaarrrgh and just hoping that I didn't by pure chance neighborize the scum team.

I didn't total out but I did state my separate values when I claimed. My base was 12 and my modifier was -5 for a total of 7.

I feel like dusky probably has something up her sleeve but I have a solid town lean so it's fine.

My speculation of night 0 is just that at best. We have no means of designing eithers activity during the night.

Except there were more tickets in the pool. The dead players had tickets too.

the tickets of the dead players don't matter because their alignments are known

i think as you add more tickets above the median, you have an exponentially higher chance, rather than proportionally, of being scum, and the opposite is also true.

consider if you have three people, one with 98 tickers, and two with 1 ticket each, and are choosing two people to become scum

the person with 98 tickets has a 98% chance of rolling scum on the first draw. If he fails and one of the 1-ticket players gets drawn, then he has a 99% chance of rolling scum on the second draw. His chance of being scum is thus over twice as high as it would be proportionally. (it ends up being 99.98% instead of 98%)

i tried to calculate the odds by taking the square of the chance of someone not being scum twice, figuring that whatever error is generated by not altering the odds slightly for the second draw would be slight, but i ended up with a number over 1.0, so i ended up shrinking all the numbers proport]ionally until they added up to 1.0, and then rounded (i think i lost a percentage point to rounding). Needing to do that makes me think i probably made a fundamental error somewhere, but i wouldn't be surprised if my numbers were still around accurate.

of course they had the wrong value for JD (by a good margin), and so rubik and arrgh should be significantly higher, me slightly higher, JD very significantly lower, and dusky slightly higher.

although we can't verify that the numbers are accurate anyway

i am honestly more interested in the math than in the practical application of it here

It would seem a reasonable assumption that Rubik and I are honest about our points, as lying about having a high value would be useless. I'm inclined to believe Dusky, if only because that would be an outrageous lie to try. U don't know Dusky well enough to tell if that would be a gambit she would go for. The people most likely to be lying, just from a number perspective, are Rag and JD. But again, the numbers do not tell the whole truth, as we learned from the Neo/KoD fiasco.

And I think the others still affect probability to a degree, at least the night kills. Since scum will always kill town, that creates a kind of Monty Hall-problem, possibly. I don't have a way to calculate it right now. Not that it really makes a difference, it's just fascinating.

As Rag pointed out, that doesn't matter, as we know their alignment and only the remaining tickets can contain the ones that were chosen for mafia.


I say go ahead. If Rag and Jay are the scum team, they were already neighborized anyway.

Vote: Aaarrrgh

Here's hoping.

Indeed!