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io
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:23 pm 
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I ran through a hypothetical game where everyone targets different players each night. My notes are a little messy but hopefully you can understand how we were able to determine that N0 was inverted by day 3 without wasting any results. I don't have time to run a bunch of these or do math to check if that happens every time but my intuition says that more results is better than confirming the inversion.

messy

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I think that people who are like that are really deep. They have a sense of understanding things and are vague and quiet and mysterious you know? Like a cello. It plays depressing music (that's how I think of it) but it's so beautiful. It's a beautiful instrument and it's so. You know. Like really emotional. Yeah. Emotional is the word. :)


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KingofDominaria
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:33 pm 
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Determining whether or not the inversion happened seems more important; however, I can see the benefit of having more investigation results on a variety of people. As it stands only two people were not investigated: Eli and Neo I believe.

Shouldn't it be possible to tell whether or not the inversion was used with just two people rechecking their targets, or am I missing something? Because if you have two people recheck their targets, the Krampus can't just kill one off and then lie otherwise a discrepancy will result.

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io
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:37 pm 
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what KoD is saying is probably correct. If we select two people to confirm their results are the same, and one of them dies, with the other being lying scum saying an inversion did or didn't happen, then eventually if we find out that an inversion did happen, they're going to be confirmed as scum. Its not only a risky gambit for scum to take, but the odds of scum being selected in the first place is not high, assuming we use a suitably random method.

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I think that people who are like that are really deep. They have a sense of understanding things and are vague and quiet and mysterious you know? Like a cello. It plays depressing music (that's how I think of it) but it's so beautiful. It's a beautiful instrument and it's so. You know. Like really emotional. Yeah. Emotional is the word. :)


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io
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:37 pm 
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I still think everyone should target someone new though.

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I think that people who are like that are really deep. They have a sense of understanding things and are vague and quiet and mysterious you know? Like a cello. It plays depressing music (that's how I think of it) but it's so beautiful. It's a beautiful instrument and it's so. You know. Like really emotional. Yeah. Emotional is the word. :)


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Zinger2099
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:13 pm 
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I'm not sure. This potential inversion is difficult to work my head around.

I'm not sure what the best line of play is.

I'm more interested in figuring out if I can trust my own results than whether or not the inversion has happened. I want to know my own sanity. It seems to me the best play to learn my own sanity is to target someone I've targeted before and see if the result is the same.

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io
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:20 pm 
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My instincts tell me that the fastest way to reveal any players sanity is to target a different player each night.

Dethy is similar to one of those logic puzzles where you get statements like "frank needs to sit beside jenny" and "jenny prefers mustard on her hotdog" and need to take those limited clues to extrapolate where everyone was sitting and what they were eating. The more results we get, the less possible solutions there will be. This should remain true whether or not an inversion happened on N0, and if its possible to figure out whether or not an inversion happened just by collecting enough clues (which it should be), then i will wager that the faster method is the latter.

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I think that people who are like that are really deep. They have a sense of understanding things and are vague and quiet and mysterious you know? Like a cello. It plays depressing music (that's how I think of it) but it's so beautiful. It's a beautiful instrument and it's so. You know. Like really emotional. Yeah. Emotional is the word. :)


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KingofDominaria
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:18 pm 
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Way I see it, we can do this one of two ways:

We can have volunteers to select recheck their targets from last night while everyone else retargets, or we can dictate (through majority decision) who retargets. Those who feel it necessary to check their insanity/whether an inversion happened can recheck their target from last night. Those who want to get more results on a variety of people can do so.

Personally, I'd like to check either Eli or Zinger tonight as opposed to rechecking my target from last night. By the looks of it, Neo and Zinger seem keen on rechecking. Can we approach it that way then? With Zinger and Neo being the ones to recheck while the rest of us target someone else to get more investigation results on different people?

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KingofDominaria
PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:53 pm 
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Now I know what I was missing. Zinger, why would you not follow what io is saying to determine your sanity? You can't determine your sanity by checking the same person over. You can only determine if the ability was used by retargeting the same person.

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Zinger2099
PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2015 2:27 am 
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KingofDominaria wrote:
Now I know what I was missing. Zinger, why would you not follow what io is saying to determine your sanity? You can't determine your sanity by checking the same person over. You can only determine if the ability was used by retargeting the same person.

Because I want to double check my results on a second night to confirm them?

Oh I see what you mean. Doing that doesn't confirm my sanity at all. K, I've been thinking about this wrong then. I think, considering that, I'd rather target someone else.

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15377
PostPosted: Wed Dec 30, 2015 7:35 pm 
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You scratch another day off the advent calendar. The hardest part is the waiting for sure.

Deadline has passed. With no votes on the table there is no lynch.

It is now Night 2. Deadline set for 1/2 at 7pm GMT.

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15377
PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:07 pm 
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A note about night. I did extend the deadline on this night to account for people being...incapacitated...for New Years. If, however, I get in all roles before deadline, I will start day early. *hint*hint*

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15377
PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:29 pm 
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You awake this second day of Christmas to find Dun Che Lao Ren (Eli) has visted! And has been brutally murdered by the Krampus! The world finds itself less santastic today...

It's now day 2. You may discuss your results and vote for the player you believe is Krampus. Day will end at deadline and no sooner.

Deadline set for 1/6 at 1159pm GMT.

(On a personal note my keyboard is starting to go out so if you start noticing missing letters and punctuation that's why)

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io
PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:43 pm 
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naughty result on eli

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I think that people who are like that are really deep. They have a sense of understanding things and are vague and quiet and mysterious you know? Like a cello. It plays depressing music (that's how I think of it) but it's so beautiful. It's a beautiful instrument and it's so. You know. Like really emotional. Yeah. Emotional is the word. :)


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Zinger2099
PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:58 pm 
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Naughty result on KoD

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NeoSilk
PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 7:52 pm 
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I hit up zinger again, and got nice again

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KingofDominaria
PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 8:33 pm 
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I got a nice result back on Zinger.

So far it is looking like: (player -- target -- result)

N0:
io -- KoD -- Naughty
Zinger -- KoD -- Naughty
KoD -- io -- Nice
Neo -- Zinger -- Nice
Eli -- KoD -- Nice

N1:
io -- Eli -- Naughty
Zinger -- KoD -- Naughty
KoD -- Zinger -- Nice
Neo -- Zinger -- Nice


-----------------

Both Zinger and Neo came up with results similar to their previous target, so we can more than likely trust our results from the first night. One question for Zinger: After the small convo we had about you figuring out your sanity, why did you again change your mind?

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Zinger2099
PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 10:33 pm 
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@KoD, because the day ended before I could really discuss my change of mindset with anyone. Also, krampus predicting our actions is bad.

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KingofDominaria
PostPosted: Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:23 am 
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Do tell me about this change of mindset because nothing changed as far as what has been posted between your post yesterday and the day opening (as if anything could change during that time since we can't talk at night). Initially you were set on determining your alignment via checking the same target. After I questioned you about your idea to pursue your sanity you made the decision to decide to look at someone else. At this point it would seem obvious that finding out your sanity was important to you.

What changed then that made you decide to recheck the same target? It didn't give you any idea to your sanity I would imagine.

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NeoSilk
PostPosted: Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:16 pm 
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From my checking, no one is eliminated (aside from Eli, of course) from being scum.
If Scum is Zinger or KoD, then the specific roles are pretty obvious (assuming on one but scum lies). If it's Io or Me, then there's some uncertainty around a few.
So - I guess the question is how do we want to do the investigation tonight, as this is the big one. With only 3 people left tomorrow, we need to do the lynch then, or scum wins.

My proposal is that we do something to randomly select 1 person, then, they pick who someone else will check, and then that person picks the next, and so forth. Any thoughts, ideas, suggestion, objections? I think it's important at this point to let others dictate the target for everyone, so that scum can't hide as easily.

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Zinger2099
PostPosted: Sat Jan 02, 2016 2:10 pm 
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It confirmed one thing, KoD: that my result was the same on both nights suggests that the inverse ability was not used at all.

Which means I am either paranoid, or insane, or you're krampus. One of those three is true.

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