1) Possessed Medic Killer
2) Honest Medic
3) I started the game possessed

If you're doubtful that I'm the game's medic, we can ask any other doctor variants to try to counterclaim me and then put a priority on lynching me over them if they decide to reveal themselves. It's almost never a good idea from the perspective of scum to trade one for one with a townie and I'm not enough of an idiot that I'd bank everything on people taking me as a townie at face value. If you really want to verify me that badly, someone can investigate me and I can protect them for the night. If I get nightkilled, it'll be the same thing as you guys lynching me.

I'd like to point out that the fact that Niklor flipped as an Honest Roleblocker points towards the possessed role moving around (considering that roleblocker is a pretty unusual role for town) and makes it significantly less likely that any sort of plan we make will be interfered with now that he's dead.

There's been amble time for a counterclaim against you. None has happened.

I honestly see no reason to not take you at your word Rubik. Garen's earlier posts describing the situation have struck home for me and I have to say that I find it unlikely that you'd take such a huge risk as scum and reveal yourself the way you did. It's much more likely, due to your coming out (not a joke) and Garen's role, that the possessions do rotate. And that can easily be tested just by making it to tomorrow assuming we don't lynch scum today. Whoever was the scum should come out just like you did, and that will easily give credit to what you said.

Instead, my focus will be on Elijin for pushing for Rubik's lynch.

Vote: Elijin

Reason:

I already attacked Rubik/Lilan for playstyle and for the situation they fell into once they admitted to the killing. Elijin's point is, first and foremost, what Lilan said about having the cop and doc come out which is not how he is painting it. Lilan did say it would be a good strategy for the doc and cop to come out, but I specifically asked Lilan if this is what she was advocating that the town follow for a plan. Here is the short exchange from the posts:

KoD: And Lilan, is that the strategy you want us to follow?

Lilan: by standard mafia strategy i meant standard scum strategy If we had a vanilla cop and doc after claim, then I wouldn't recommend any specific actions aside from having the doc protect the cop and the cop claiming results each day until they die.

KoD: So you're just posting the obvious. Alrighty.

Lilan: Yes, in response to elijin not understanding the benefit an open doc and cop bring the town.


So to reiterate, it's not as bad as Elijin is painting it. Besides, if this was such a grievous offense, why didn't Elijin vote Lilan/Rubik for this yesterday? My thoughts on that are that things are special now with Rubik having claimed the murder. It makes pushing a lynch on Rubik much easier than just using Lilan's thoughts on their own. Plus, with such an easy lynch target, it makes looking elsewhere not really necessary. This is why Elijin, to me, is worthy of dying today.

What I was saying was that the information presented by Rubik was information Alt had already made public. We had a possessed death and a town death. From these two he can compare and contrast role names when presenting his claim. The possession rotating isn't a matter of fact, and should not be taken as such.

As for your scum wouldn't do that remark, that's the crux of a classic WIFOM argument. Because scum wouldn't do that you can't be scum. But since you know scum wouldn't do that as scum you can safely do that and just hide behind the fact that scum wouldn't do that. But because I know that as scum you can safely hide behind that notion, I cannot discount the possibility you might be scum just trying to hide behind that notion. Later, rinse, repeat.

@Scar, it's at moments like this when you disregard your experience that I find you most scummy. As an experienced player I expect more from you. First off, you should know better than to allow anyone to exclude themselves from a list of potential suspects because reasons. This list in particular even more so because there's literally no reason to exclude Garren. Timing on yourself is also another matter to consider. If possession rotates at the start of day and abilities resolve at the end of night, when Garren gets his name check, new possession might not be a factor. Toss in the fact that we currently have no evidence to suggest Rubik is actually clean of possession and that's another on the list of possibles. This doesn't even begin to take into consideration that Garren is a receptacle for second hand information, roles that are historically fraught with tampering. But your eagerness to jump up and back Garren is definitely noted.

Assuming killing (lynching) a possessed player gets rid of the spirit, we've only got one other spirit to deal with. While I did have initial concerns about Rubik, I see no reason to let him live past this day for the purposes of verification tomorrow (as outlined in my previous post).

The fact that we already killed one possessed player should be a mark in our favor. Unless, of course, you are of the opinion that the spirits keep possessing two new people every time no matter if one gets lynched.

But that seems really really over the top for allowing mafia to win.

That would be over the top if it was strictly them in that sense. But if you are looking at things from the perspective that there is an actual Blood Witch role and the possessions are just a defensive mechanism (ie, town goes looking in the wrong direction by chasing the possessed rather than the Witch) than it's not so over the top. The Witch's win con would probably be to escape (survive until town is either possessed or dead) and anybody possessed at the time of the Witch's victory would win too. Town kills the Witch, though, and the possessions stop, town wins via no possessed escaping.

Of course we cannot be certain of how the dynamics of possession work today without some suicidal schmuck just coming out and admitting to currently be possessed for the greater good. So at this time I'm not really ready to proceed on any assumption to how this game works. I'll just be lynching the scummiest person at the end of the day, which seems to be your currently philosophy as well, so that's something we see eye to eye on.

I will say that if possession does rotate, I see no reason why the possessed would bother to kill at night. Not killing at night would be counter productive to the "current" win con, but if you're just going to flip back to town in the morning, actively trying to harm town while possessed only to flip back to town almost hours later seems even more counter productive.

I love junk like this. 'You said something - proof you are scum!'. 'You said a different thing - proof you are scum!' It's nice when arguments allow you to chase your pipe-dreams isn't it numbers? Who knows? Keep grasping around blind long enough and you might accidentally stumble across a argument with something more substantial then 'ooh doesn't look like scum!'


I'd assume they kill people because A) those are the rules and B) people actually want to play this game. If you're not going to kill someone because you're town tomorrow we might as well just end this now with a town victory. Though it does raise an interesting point in it's own way.

Hey Rubik! Was there any indication in your original role PM that your possession was a temporary thing? It may be possible things switched around because we managed to hit one of the possessed. Hmm. Now I can't wait for the night phase.

Nothing. The role pm was very direct.

Why didnt I vote for Lilan day 1? Well other than the fact I have said the combined behaviour is why I find him a good suspect, not the single point, I butted heads with him. Very early in day 1. Im not going to throw out (serious) votes early day 1, and I was absent for the later half due to life doing its thing and making time a scarcity. Not to mention, I havent voted, nor will I this early. We have the whole week (day) to hash things out. Yes, I undoubtedly feel that there needs to be a lynch today. Doesnt mean Im going to jump on it headfirst in a race to close off the day, mr 'already voted twice'. Especially not in a game where we're speculating that new mechanics are in play.

Now lets look at your reasons for jumping to his defense. You find the whole thing just to crazy of a gamble to make up, and thus clearly innocent. You see the issue there right? Someone making a gambit which would be so stupid if they're scum, that they clearly must be town? There's another way of phrasing that other than suicidal. Its ballsy. As in hiding in plain sight because they couldnt possibly be scum AND get away with that claim, right?

Moving on people are talking about an actual witch, and the possibility that the investigative roles can only ever work with yesterdays information, if the possessions are fluid. These are both just loaded with potential and pitfalls. The witch just throws so much chaos into the mix. Are investigative roles capable of detecting the witch? If the witch is the true target, does that mean scum results are irrelevant and their ranks will be replenished each day? How would that work? Do they get a % of the remaining town, as each day moving forward, will there be less scum if this is the case?

Then there's investigative roles. Its already been implied that these roles are near useless due to running old information...but then its also been mentioned that past reads may as well be thrown out with this idea of rotating scum. If we believe the claims made, it means we have 2 players who's day we can study, to see what they said when we knew their alignment.

Ultimately with so much new information being presented to format, we have the option of verifying Rubik's information by lynching or by taking the wait and see approach. Lynching will give us a definitive answer either way. Waiting to see what happens, risks letting scum run potentially nefarious plans. I mean, we have no idea how this works. What if instead of Rubik's 'useful ability' being a doctor role, its a single shot spread of possession. Then day 3, we have another player step up and confirm his story.

My point there is that Lynching Rubiks corroborates his story, one way or the other. Waiting to see how things play out hopes that he's on the level, and we're not being played. It could pay off, it could be the beginning of town being led by the nose to their end.

Oh yeah, I'm definitely happy with my vote on Elijin. Got too defensive with side comments directed at me, Mr. 'Already Voted Twice'.

You miss the point of the WIFOM argument, which is a mafia basic to keep in mind. A Wine In Front Of Me argument is derived from the Princess Bride battle of wits scene in which Vizzini and the Pirate battle minds between two cups of wine placed in front of them, one of which is said to be poisoned. Relating this to the game, you've placed two cups of wine in front of the other players in your actions. On one side we have the poisoned cup (you're scum trying to mislead town) on the other is the "safe" wine (you're town trying to do right). You are then insisting that logic dictates only one cup can possibly be the correct one. But as Vizzini logics quite thoroughly in the movie, your argument is invalid because of human nature and can be completely off base regardless. It is not a compounding set of proofs that you are scum, but rather a wash. Ultimately logic alone cannot dictate whether or not you're scum based on just that action. Nor can it vindicate you as town.

As for the killing, unless specifically stated that a role function is a compelled function (you must kill at night vs you may kill at night) than using the role is not part of the rules. If you'd like to clarify that you are indeed possessed and know it's a compelled function that's one thing, otherwise you're only making further assumptions that you shouldn't be. As for playing the game, you play to win. If you know you won't win that night and will return to town the next day, the correct action is to not harm your chances of winning when you flip back to town. As to why you're now trying to discredit the scenario you've chosen to build up today just to argue my point, I have no idea. If a player is possessed today and wasn't yesterday they are likely to buy into Rubik's revolution theory and will likely operate from the perspective that they won't be possessed tomorrow.

@Eli, if life managed to make you miss half a day, perhaps you should consider throwing a vote. It's not like there isn't a reasonable assumption that you'll be able to change it later (and if you can't you might just want to go ahead and claim that right now to get people off your back). Clocking your day 1 activity you made approximately the first 48 hours of official day (from Alt's day start post after confirmations) and missed the last approximately 110 hours (clocked time stamp of your last post till Alt's day end post). Seems like a good reason to be a little more trigger happy to me considering you missed more than half of the day (Total day time clocking at about 158 hours start to finish).

My playstyle is always, and always will be, to assume things are true unless evidence is brought up to the contrary or things don't add up mathematically.

That's the experience of what mafia is for me. I don't tend to second-guess role information because there is rarely anything to be gained there. That's also why I tend to be stronger in the end game.
So Garren claimed, you made an out-of-the-park speculation. Which one is more likely to be true? You do the math.

The argument presented didn't add up though. As I previously stated there was no reason to exclude either Garren or Rubik. So even if you take his information to be true on yourself, that's only 1 player that can be eliminated from the possible pool of possessed. This is a matter you have yet to rectify. Given that, the math says it's more likely that 1 or 2 people are lying here rather than Garren happens to be coincidentally right.

As for the speculation being out of the park, please expand. I've established that there is no reason to eliminate Garren as a possible possessed. None has been given since. So to speculate that he could be possessed is out of the park how?

The speculation that I was in a possessed QT because Garren did not name me was out of the park.

I do admit that the four Garren mentioned should theoretically be five given the 'possessed players switch around' theory, because Garren should also be included.
However, if Garren was one of the possessed, giving more information about the possessed seems counter-intuitive. So for the moment, I'll stick with the four.

How so? Rubik just admitted to being in a possessed QT with another player. He then claimed the possession moved on. So how is it out of the park to speculate two new players wouldn't be sharing a QT? Because one possessed died? Well that assumption requires more depth of knowledge than we have on the possessed. There's still a great many ways this aspect of the game could play out. Picking one and ignoring everything else doesn't make everything else outlandish and impossible. You know that.

How is Garren claiming counter productive? Seems to me it's giving him some mighty fine town pants in your eyes. And isn't that what scum wants come lynch time? Seems pretty productive to me. You're also still excluding Rubik from possibly being possessed for unstated reasons.

I think this is more helpful to town than to scum. I mean, now that town knows that the only way to open the tunnel is to have a day/night without a kill, it's clear that town needs to lynch someone each day, or the scum will just no-kill at night, and the game will be over.

Clearly scum already knows their win-con.

The fact that you think this is bad for town makes me think that you're currently possessed.

Just because scum knew their win con doesn't mean they knew how to achieve it. Eli is essentially saying you handed scum the road map to victory. With a majority being necessary for lynch, it'll be easier for them to win if they know they just have to swing one missed lynch and win regardless of numbers. That's why anybody who is seen as reluctant to vote *cough*Eli*cough* or attempts to be negatively swingy near deadline when people are trying to achieve majority should be viewed as especially suspicious.

@Neo

I already explained this. Assuming all town win conditions are the same, the town win condition is 'No possessed player may escape.', if we apply normal mafia logic of opposites, then the possessed players must have a win condition that they escape. Before you spoke up, the escape conditions were an unknown value, which short of stumbling upon via blind luck, could not be worked towards by town or scum. Now, its a known value which can be worked towards.

Rubik, is my speculation correct? What is the scum win condition?

@Numbers.
Im not hesitant to vote, I didnt want to throw out a vote instantly, over the first grievance I encountered.

@KoD
Great, ignore all my points because I was, and am, sarcastic.

Its now the weekend, and there is a con on, so Im going to place a vote, lest I come back and find myself lynched because I didnt vote.

Vote: Rubiks

The only sure way to verify your story either way, is on the autopsy table my friend. And given the greater implications your story has to this game, I rate it pretttttttty important to verify the notion of rotating scum.

The con, in case anyone thinks Im making up stories http://www.supanova.com.au/

I really like that movie. I still don't think it quite applies to this situation as I still have, in keeping with the WIFOM scenario, the ability to just walk away at any point (by saying nothing in the first place) but I do get your argument. I just don't see the point in constructively arguing against it.


I know this was aimed at Scarlet but you mind if I jump in and give my thoughts? For what it's worth I seriously doubt there are still two mafia members now we have killed one. If nothing else it's just incredibly disheartening - not to mention all kinds of unfair. If it is always two possessed mafia, regardless of our actions, then nothing we can do matters. Mafia will always be at full strength and executing people serves only to strengthen there game since even if we do lynch one it doesn't diminish there strength at all. Though I assume you logic here is that there is a controller (the titular Blood Witch) out there somewhere who we are supposed to be aiming for? Personally I don't buy that but I imagine you do.


This right here. Knowing that not executing someone will lead to an immediate mafia win is so ridiculously in our favour I don't see how it could be interpreted as a mafia action. Yes it means mafia also know there win con but they could always have won anyway via the tried and true "murder everyone" route. That and I'd like Neo to stick around for at least one more turn. I want to see if any new mechanics are revealed to him over the next night.

Oh also for like the third time.

NUMBERS! Who did your cop power hit? You were so quick to claim yesterday about how much of a cop you were why so quiet about the results?