We have under a day for votes on this team, and I have six of seven votes in. Good thing this voting round got extended for the weekend.

The votes are in:

Mown - NO
razorborne - YES
NeoSilk - YES
Rubik - YES
Niklor - NO
Zinger2099 - NO
Garren_Windspear - NO

Result: The team is voted down, leadership passes to Garren_Windspear

Since I'll be going to sleep soon I'll be getting the next team up now.

Proposed Team is Garren_Windspear, Razorborne and Rubik

And to pre-empt Razor - I said no because I don't trust Mown or Zinger and, having no way to determine which is the spy, won't be approving missions with either of them on.

You need 4 members for this team, Garren_Windspear.

Oops. My bad. Hmm.

Proposed Team - Garren_Windspear, Razorborne, Rubik and Neosilk

Mission 4

Proposal 2

Leader: Garren_Windspear

Team: Garren_Windspear, razorborne, Rubik and Neosilk

round|nominator|team|Garren|Mown|Neo|Nik|Raz|Rubik|Zinger||Go?|Fails
1.1|Garren|Garren, Raz|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no||{color=red}no|NA
1.2|Neo|Neo, Mown|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no||{color=red}no|NA
1.3|Nik|Nik, Neo|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no||{color=red}no|NA
1.4|Zinger|Zinger, Garren|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes||{color=yellow}yes|{color=green}0
2.1|Mown|Mown, Zinger, Garren|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes||{color=yellow}yes|{color=red}1
3.1|Rubik|Rubik, Raz, Neo|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes||{color=yellow}yes|{color=green}0
4.1|Raz|Raz, Rubik, Neo, Zinger|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no||{color=red}no||

I think I can guess why Neo, Rubik, and myself voted the way we did. Zinger explained their reasoning, although it makes no sense but sure whatever.

Garren's explained their vote, although they seem to be under one of two mistaken impressions. either they don't recognize that, given the setup, sending a single scum on this mission is irrelevant, or they don't recognize that it is almost impossible that there is exactly one scum among the group of Neo, Rubik, and myself. or they voted this mission down because they're scum who can't let a safe mission pass and are using a flimsy excuse to justify it.

to explore exactly why that excuse is so flimsy, let's start with the assumption that a) Garren is town, and b) only one of Mown and Zinger is scum. the former is a requisite in order to look at the justification from Garren's hypothetical perspective. the latter isn't necessarily true, and isn't something we should accept automatically in general, but for the sake of this exercise I'm willing to accept it temporarily. given that, from Garren's perspective, a 4-person team that has neither Mown nor Zinger on it must have at least one scum, because 2 remain in the pool of 5 to choose from. in fact, from Garren's perspective here, you have 2/4 non-team-2 scum, and 1/2 team-2 scum. the odds tip a bit when you factor in the very real possibility that both Mown and Zinger are scum, but factoring that in reduces the likelihood that there was a scum on team 3, putting us back into "why is Garren afraid of a team with exactly one scum" territory.

so unless Garren can provide reasoning for their suspicion that there was exactly one scum on team 3 and that scum just randomly chose not to sabotage with excellent cover and no risk of counter-exposure, in order to set up a team 4 that would only get them the same win they'd get otherwise but with more information given and a conceded mission, I'm going to go ahead and assume Garren is desperate scum.

Mown, given the following:

why would you reject a team you felt had a 3/4ths chance of winning the game outright? if all three of mission 3 were town, then Zinger's alignment doesn't matter, so suspicion of them is irrelevant. you are aware of this, which means that you are of the belief that there is an unriskably high chance that there were two spies on mission 3. what gives you that impression? what team would you propose that doesn't rely on the core of mission 3?

Nik: why choose now to cast your first non-defaulted no vote of the entire game?

Zinger I accept got mind-games'd, but none of the rest of you expressed any concern for the 2-spy theory and that is the only theory through which town could lose here.

on this new team, I'm suspicious. I think it's Garren grenade-diving and making themself look bad to taint perception in the hopes that this gets voted down and we don't trust team 3 anymore, but I just don't see the one-spy scenario making any sense whatsoever, so I'm honestly pretty much just as happy with this mission as I was with the last one.

is it possible, though, that Neo was scum who just forgot to submit a fail before the deadline?

MOD: the rules don't state what happens in the case of a missing pass/fail entry. without getting into specific scenarios, can you clarify what your policy is were such an event to occur? if a spy on a team does not submit a pass or fail by the deadline, what would you do, hypothetically speaking?

I know either Zinger or Mown are scum so I'm not voting for a team with either of them on it. I don't see why anymore words need to be expanded on that. *shrug*

Probably prod the player relentlessly with PMs. Voting for a team is one thing, but if you're on the mission, you need to tell me what you do.

I still think we probably have no spies or one spy in the core 3 (even if the 1 spy possibility is low and doing it would have been irrational).

I think the fact that the team with Zinger failed probably means that that team is safe, but it's still possible that the one spy in the team was zinger and he failed it because he knew it wouldn't have enough fails. If that's the case, we should definitely go with Garren right now.

My main fear is letting the nomination pass to scum, which is entirely possible since Nik and Zinger make the last two proposals and it's entirely possible that both of them are scum.

I want to know if a) neo is willing to nominate the same team as razor did the first round and b) zinger is willing to approve it this time before I make a vote.

because, on this specific mission, one scum can't sink the mission. given that it is logically almost impossible that Zinger's alignment matters, since it's almost impossible that there was exactly one scum on mission 3, why does your suspicion of Zinger translate to a team rejection? if anything, Zinger being scum is a good thing, since that increases the likelihood of crossed wires if there are 3 spies on the mission. and it's not like this wasn't clear: this was discussed at length, so you have no excuse for not realizing that sending a single scum on this mission wasn't a risk.

so, again, please justify your suspicion not that Zinger is scum, but that that mission was unsafe. justify your belief that approving that mission would not have won us the game.

I would also like to here what Neo proposes before I vote. we're in the late game: it's no longer optimal to hold your cards close. we have the opportunity to win before mission 5, which is going to be a doozy to get right. now is when we clinch that. I can tell you this: I'm pretty sure I will vote for any team involving all three members of team 3. I'm suspicious of Garren's nomination on principle, but I'm guessing it's a pump fake or a hole so I'd probably even be ok with it. but if Neo wants to take Zinger then I'll hold off in case Garren's got something sneaky going on.

that said, I wouldn't be particularly optimistic on Zinger approving a renomination. they're the last team, so they can freely reject to their turn, then bring whoever they want. I would be interested in hearing who that is (and the same from Nik) but I would assume that Zinger will feel totally free to keep rejecting teams they don't like, and they've made it clear they don't like that one.

and yes, on that question, I understand that nominations may change with an evolving voting record. while I'll certainly expect a good reason if your nomination doesn't match what you say it will, I don't think it's unreasonable to change it if someone votes suspiciously here. I just want your best guess as to what it would be, given the information available right now.

@Razor
You made a nice post about how you think I am scum and it had some good odds on it for why you believe you should vote yes. Besides the odds looking unfavorable from my perspective, I find no real reason to push forward a team with a person trying to paint me as scum to push their own agenda. So, not going to vote for a team you are on.

eh, I guess I can see the odds from your perspective. if you're town, then a 2-person scum team on mission 3 seems a lot more likely. I don't believe you're town, but the odds certainly wouldn't look great if you were, so that's fairly reasonable.

out of curiosity, which of the mission 3 members do you think is scum? I assume I'm one, but who do you think is the other one?

If you are scum, that means you likely would have picked scum. So, one of Neo, Rubik, and Zinger are scum and the last one is either Garren or Mown. Since having all three scum team on the same mission would be a fairly significant risk, I would assume that Garren as scum would not pick the third scum which would make it Zinger. So it's either Razor, Garren, Zinger or Razor, Mown, (Neo/Rubik/Zinger).

Essentially, I am certain there was one scum among the three players you chose. Garren could easily be town and could have a winning mission team here, but I'd rather hold off on pushing through a team I am certain contains at least one scum with a strong chance there is a second.

Based on my thoughts, I'm OK with this team.
Rubik - it depends on what happens with this team. If this is not passed, the leading team that I would propose is the one you said, and the one that I just voted yes for.
Of course, if this mission goes and fails, then that will be changed.

I'll be voting this mission down on the basis that I know there is at least one scum on it, and probably there is two.

NeoSilk being okay with the team is not a good sign in my books either.

I legitimately don't understand your logic here. Unless I've grossly misread the rules 1 scum can sink the mission. It only takes 1 fail card for the entire mission to fail doesn't it? If it only takes 1 fail why would I approve a mission team that includes someone I believe to be scum?

EBWOP - Ah carp I just rechecked the rules. Apparently 1 fail card isn't enough to sink the mission. Yeah I've got nothing then. My bad.