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PostPosted: Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:41 pm 
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mission|leader|team|Rag|Neo|Mown|Zinger|Tevish|Squinty|Rubik|yeses|pass?|sabotages
1.1|Rag|Neo, Mown|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|2|{color=red} no
1.2|Neo|Neo, Squinty|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=yellow}default|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|3|{color=red}no|
1.3|Mown|Mown, Rubik|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|3|{color=red}no
1.4|Zinger|Zinger, Squinty|{color=yellow}default|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|4|{color=green}yes|


Zinger, Squinty, please send me your intentions. (regardless of your alignment.) you have 48 hours.

:duel:

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 12:25 am 
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So, let's have a little talk about hypotheticals. I'm up next as leader. As Rubik noted, if we identify a winning 3-team off the bat, we win.

If this mission passes, there's no guarantee of no-scum, but at the same point there might be no scum if it passes. And with the first three out, I'm actually feeling kinda good about it (and bad about Rag, Mown, and to a lesser extent Rubik right now. The no vote was anticipated, but all the same if I had to guess a scumteam right now, I might guess there. Assuming, of course, this thing passes.)

If this mission passes, my current intent is to send Zinger, Squinty, and Myself on the resulting three-man bear-punching expedition. Should that pass, we have our clean team and one of its members (squinty) up next as leader, which is AWESOME.

If anyone has a good, LOGICAL reason why this should not be so -- Why a team of two successful bear punchers and the current leader would be a bad team -- I'd like to hear it before it falls to me to finalize my team.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 1:32 am 
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Squinty I'm fine with, but Zinger I'm a little apprehensive about.

I think, considering the attention that was being given to Zinger, he would still be pretty unlikely to fail yesterday's mission and my misgivings about him from Day 1 still remain.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:13 am 
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Possible, but from where I stand the alternative is to include an unknown factor Zinger is iffier than Squinty, but he's on better ground than most others right now.

But given your vote on the current team, I was rather expecting that reservation.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:26 am 
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Rag, why the defaulted vote?

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 11:33 am 
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I'm not willing to talk about the next mission until we see if this one passes. Of course, if this passes, then there's no guarantee that there were no spies on it, however, the people on this would be less likely (IMO) to be spies than the general majority.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 11:43 am 
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Fascinating how, if we assume rag voted no, the votes are the direct opposite of the ones for my team.
But rag was probably going to actually vote yes, and was just being rag, given what she said earlier.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 12:32 pm 
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Mown wrote:
Fascinating how, if we assume rag voted no, the votes are the direct opposite of the ones for my team.
But rag was probably going to actually vote yes, and was just being rag, given what she said earlier.

That's an interesting point, but it's also entirely possible that Rag—backed into a situation where voting "yes" for every mission was expected of him—defaulted on the vote as a means of voting "no" without actually doing so.

That said, I'm not entirely comfortable with Tevish choosing 4 people as undesirables so arbitrarily. Tevish's case against Rag was primarily based on Rag forming a team without himself, yet Tevish did pretty much exactly the same thing without believing there should be any suspicion placed on him for doing so. I think the fact that he managed to get a team formed using the same sort of tactic that failed for Rag's team is pretty suspicious given that scum should (in theory) have more ability to swing the voting system than town does. I think it's entirely possible that Tevish built a team without himself that he either knew would pass to give himself faux "town-pants" or a team that could have failed if a scum buddy had decided to do so, but the scum buddy decided against it.

I think it's also possible that Tevish might be town and a scum Zinger used this round to convince him that he's town.

The way Tevish and Zinger are buddying makes me feel a bit uneasy, though, because it's probably either scum trying to gather influence over the vote, or town yelling "hey, we have power roles". Either way, it's blatantly anti-town.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 1:26 pm 
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Rubik, what are you talking about? Tevish hasn't made any team yet.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:02 pm 
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Mown wrote:
Rubik, what are you talking about? Tevish hasn't made any team yet.

Woops. I fallaciously attributed Zinger's team to Tevish in my head because he was so outspoken about it.

My bad.

-

Most of my logic still applies, but some of it is invalidated due to it being based on that faulty premise (namely the part about his case on rag being hypocritical).

That said, he still heavily forced a team without him (which was still in a sense hypocritical) instead of letting the round hit 5 and guaranteeing a team with him on it, which would ensure at least 50% of the team was town from his (alleged) perspective. It seems like he made this play to secure the first team choice today based on having outside knowledge about how D1 would turn out, which would imply that he's either scum or playing a power role poorly.

The main points of my argument that I still think are relevant:
1. I think Zinger and Tevish buddying is a problematic trend.
2. If Tevish is scum, he might have pushed so hard for that team because he wanted to get town pants from it or let a scum buddy get on the team.
3. If Tevish is town, Zinger might have managed to convince Tevish that he's town by drawing attention to himself and then buddying with him.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 3:55 pm 
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Rag, why the defaulted vote?

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:46 pm 
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Rubik wrote:
Mown wrote:
Rubik, what are you talking about? Tevish hasn't made any team yet.

Woops. I fallaciously attributed Zinger's team to Tevish in my head because he was so outspoken about it.

My bad.

-

Most of my logic still applies, but some of it is invalidated due to it being based on that faulty premise (namely the part about his case on rag being hypocritical).
Faulty premise? Or deliberate slander?

I'm not buddying Tevish any more than I'm buddying any member of the resistance. What you perceive as buddying is merely an obvious distancing from members who wish to sabotage my bear punching enterprise.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:51 pm 
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Durh hur hur, the scum team is dumb. They crying because it has now been made obvious on the first round of the game just who exactly they are. Now they know they can't win and so they complain about it. Ha.

Go bear punchers!

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 7:08 pm 
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mission|leader|team|Rag|Neo|Mown|Zinger|Tevish|Squinty|Rubik|yeses|pass?|sabotages
1.1|Rag|Neo, Mown|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|2|{color=red} no
1.2|Neo|Neo, Squinty|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=yellow}default|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|3|{color=red}no|
1.3|Mown|Mown, Rubik|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|3|{color=red}no
1.4|Zinger|Zinger, Squinty|{color=yellow}default|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|4|{color=green}yes|{color=blue}0


congratulations, the first mission has passed! bears have been punched this evening, and the end times have been stayed. but all is not well. the darkness grows. three bears must be punched this night. who among you is up to the task? Tevish, please select your team.

:duel:

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 7:24 pm 
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I WAS NINJA'D BY RESULTS.

NeoSilk wrote:
Of course, if this passes, then there's no guarantee that there were no spies on it, however, the people on this would be less likely (IMO) to be spies than the general majority.

Thank you for confirming my general premise.

My #1 goal here is just one thing: a team free of spies. This can never be guaranteed, but it can be estimated. You built possible scumteams, considering both buddying and deliberate distancing, and take advantage of your ability to read people. You also, through voting records and more potently through the accumulation of successful or failed missions.

A wise use of actual evidence is that people who have gone on a successful mission are probably less likely to be scum.

What I also know is that we can't afford to have every mission be as contentious as mission 1. These defaults are dangerous, in my mind, and I would rather have a frank discussion right now than blindly propose something that the group as a whole has uttered no say in and hope it passes muster.

In doing so I also aim to build evidence, by establishing clear intents to move one way or another on a hypothetical team, we may determine scum as those who, when faced with something they must admit to be of sound logic, find themselves instead attempting to vote it down.

We bear punchers need to understand who our friends are, since it takes 4 upvotes to launch a mission and there are only 4 true Bear Punchers. We also need to maintain activity for the same reason.

I find myself unconcerned by rubik's slippery memory. We have a physical record of who created what teams, so I don;t think it takes much to see that his core point was incorrect. I'm more concerned with someone willing, with defaults a 'thing', to send us on to mission #5 with few if any better possibilities. I'm concerned that this might be someone who wants to get a swing at leadership before a town win can manifest itself.

Look at it this way: If Zinger, Squinty, and Myself really are all town (and I am suspecting this is true), we have a golden opportunity where the victory squad will contain the leader thrice in a row. Scum's only hope in this scenario is to attempt to discredit without evidence one of the three of us and move the leadership onward to their own.

We'll get some information when this mission has run. We can;t get any more before the next one. In the (i feel) probable result of a pass, I find our best short and long term option is to launch the team I previously proposed. At that point, the mission can pass at which time the game is probably ours, or it can fail and we get info on who our friends really aren't, and under the circumstances I'll probably owe Rubik an apology and Zinger (or maybe squinty) a shake of my fist.

As it stands, before results here are my current Thoughts

Rag: Proposed the super-fishy first team, likely hoping town would blindly launch any team 1.
Neo and Mown: On the super-fishy first team. One of them's scum.
Zinger: He's pretty loud, yes? This is, in my mafia experience, a good thing. Scum can try to sway results behind the scenes, town only has talk to its advantage, which Zinger is doing a lot of despite accusations of shutting down debate (a debate he was, in fact, responding to). He could go either way but I'm leaning town.
Squinty: He's a bit quiet, no? Could be uninformed and playing that way, or could be trying to remain inoffensive enough to lurk his way onto teams and tank them. We shall see. I'm leaning town, though, in the current climate.
Rubik: By process of elimination, probably scum. He talks a lot though, which makes me worry, even if his talk is more interested in fingering individuals than in discerning, by logic and not blind policy, a successful bear punching team. In the end, between Rubik and Zinger, it comes down to my attempt to cold read. Suggesting claims feels more like assassin trolling for info than anything else.

Current Scum Guess: Rag, Mown, Rubik.
If any of you three are town: sorry. Feel free to prove it with your votes, but I'm not sending you on missions!


SUPER MAXIMUM NINJA BY RESULTS EXTRAVAGANZA.

My team of bear punchers is
Zinger
Tevish (myself)
Squinty

Because cold logic dictates, with my knowledge of my own alignment and our shared knowledge of Zinger and Squinty's past success, this to be the winning team.

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I have a blog. I review anime, and sometimes related media, with an analytical focus.

I'm a (self) published author now! You can find my books on Amazon in Paperback or ebook!
The Accursed, a standalone young adult fantasy adventure.
Witch Hunters, book one of a young adult Scifi-fantasy trilogy.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 7:40 pm 
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[quote="razorborne"]mission|leader|team|Rag|Neo|Mown|Zinger|Tevish|Squinty|Rubik|yeses|pass?|sabotages
1.1|Rag|Neo, Mown|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|2|{color=red} no
1.2|Neo|Neo, Squinty|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=yellow}default|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|3|{color=red}no|
1.3|Mown|Mown, Rubik|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|3|{color=red}no
1.4|Zinger|Zinger, Squinty|{color=yellow}default|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|4|{color=green}yes|{color=blue}0
2.1|Tevish|Tevish, Zinger, Squinty|


by the way I never mentioned this but I had been operating under the assumption that we were using the house rule that says proposal 5 auto-passes because there's no reason for it not to. so you were never in any threat of defaults costing you the game like that, although you didn't necessarily know that.

anyway, 72 hours to vote.

:duel:

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:46 pm 
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Zinger2099 wrote:
Faulty premise? Or deliberate slander?
Why would I deliberately base an argument on something that could easily be refuted by either of you two or literally anyone else who was paying attention? It only hurts my case by making me look careless and I stand to gain nothing by doing so intentionally (unless you think I wanted my case to be poked apart).


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:23 am 
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Rubik wrote:
Zinger2099 wrote:
Faulty premise? Or deliberate slander?
Why would I deliberately base an argument on something that could easily be refuted by either of you two or literally anyone else who was paying attention? It only hurts my case by making me look careless and I stand to gain nothing by doing so intentionally (unless you think I wanted my case to be poked apart).

:bored: Because you obviously didn't think it could so easily be poked apart. If you did, you would not have made such an argument, regardless of your alignment.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:24 am 
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Zinger, I can't think of anything that could be poked apart easier than incorrectly attributing a team combination/vote to a player. Not even an idiot would intentionally do that. I don't know if there's any logical reason anyone would do that intentionally.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:53 am 
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I'm currently on the fence on this one, but leaning towards voting yes. I'm still somewhat confused by Zinger, and, I think he's sharp enough to pass mission one to fail mission two to throw someone under the bus.
For me to vote yes on this, I'd have to be pretty sure that Rag, Mown and Rubik are the spies, and I'm really not sold on that.
I think that Rag is clearly the most likely to be a spy at this point, so I've no plans on voting yes for any team that includes Rag...and, of course, SE and Zinger have a strong point in their favor, having been on the successful mission.
Tevish, all we know about is the no votes for every mission but the last one, which gave him the ability to pick this first mission (I know, WIFOM). I just like to try and spell everything out.

@Squinty - if this does not pass, who are you thinking about for the next mission? I'm in the unique situation where, if we vote no for this and the next 3 missions, then it would fall on me to pick this team, so, I'd like to try and weigh some options before I make my decision.

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