I'm frustrated that the cost of the four/six strikes rule, and this idea of everyone as being potentially a valuable contributor, doesn't seem to be something that people want to address, except to dismiss out of hand with a pretty weak "well no one can predict the future" response. Being a mod is ABOUT predicting the future and recognizing patterns of behavior.
It seems bizarre to me that mods can talk out of uniform about people being bad news, but in uniform don't actually seem to so anything to curtail a repeat of behavior they know will happen.
I liked most of your post Keeper, but I feel like I have to touch on these two things slightly.
I became a mod after having several encounters with mods in my early internet years. Let's just say that 15-year-old me would get warned a lot by current me.
People can change when threated with something. How harsh that something has to be, differs from one person to the next.
But, again, we are not a site based on Duels alone. We can't use the environment there as foundation on the ruleset of the entire forum. The six strike rule was a sort of middle ground and after analyzing the warns people got, it was changed to four strikes because an issued day ban was enough for more than 90% of the warned people to change that behavior.
And we still have the option to immediately remove users. We just use it sparingly. And if that's justified or not is another discussion that, again, differs for each user.
I can sort of agree with that second sentiment myself. It is part of the reason I abandoned my out-of-uniform account when I became a mod here. I do think one's views should be the same whether they are in or out of uniform.
But because of my lack of involvement outside of Play-by-post and this thread I do not know how much this is still a thing.